Atea Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AVIR -  USA Stock  

USD 27.25  1.27  4.89%

Atea Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Atea Pharmaceuticals historical stock prices and determine the direction of Atea Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Atea Pharmaceuticals historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Atea Pharmaceuticals naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Atea Pharmaceuticals systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Atea Pharmaceuticals fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atea Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.

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Atea Pharmaceuticals Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Atea Pharmaceuticals reported last year Accounts Payable Turnover of 48.10. As of 09/16/2021, Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to grow to 4.12, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 13.11. . As of 09/16/2021, Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to about 394.1 M, while Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 19.4 M.
Most investors in Atea Pharmaceuticals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Atea Pharmaceuticals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Atea Pharmaceuticals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Atea Pharmaceuticals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Atea Pharmaceuticals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Atea Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of September 2021

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Atea Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 26.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.58. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atea Pharmaceuticals Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atea Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Atea Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern

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Atea Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Atea Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atea Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.59 and 30.19, respectively. We have considered Atea Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.25
16th of September 2021
26.89
Expected Value
30.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atea Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atea Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria36.5675
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5637
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0195
SAESum of the absolute errors9.5835
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Atea Pharmaceuticals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Atea Pharmaceuticals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Atea Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atea Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atea Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Atea Pharmaceuticals in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.5028.0932.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.0934.8339.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
26.7729.0931.41
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
37.0046.5056.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Atea Pharmaceuticals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Atea Pharmaceuticals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Atea Pharmaceuticals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Atea Pharmaceuticals.

Other Forecasting Options for Atea Pharmaceuticals

For every potential investor in Atea Pharmaceuticals, whether a beginner or expert, Atea Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atea Pharmaceuticals Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atea Pharmaceuticals. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atea Pharmaceuticals' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atea Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atea Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atea Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Atea Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Atea Pharmaceuticals' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Atea Pharmaceuticals' current price.

Atea Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atea Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atea Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atea Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atea Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Atea Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Atea Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atea Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Atea Pharmaceuticals stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Atea Pharmaceuticals without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Atea Pharmaceuticals

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Atea Pharmaceuticals position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Atea Pharmaceuticals will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Atea Pharmaceuticals Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Atea Pharmaceuticals and Equillium. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atea Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Atea Pharmaceuticals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Atea Pharmaceuticals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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When running Atea Pharmaceuticals price analysis, check to measure Atea Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Atea Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Atea Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Atea Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Atea Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Atea Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Atea Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atea Pharmaceuticals that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atea Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atea Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atea Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atea Pharmaceuticals underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atea Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Atea Pharmaceuticals value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atea Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.