Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BABAF Stock | USD 9.04 0.43 4.99% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.94. Alibaba Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alibaba Group stock prices and determine the direction of Alibaba Group Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alibaba Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections. Alibaba |
Most investors in Alibaba Group cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alibaba Group's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alibaba Group's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Alibaba Group is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alibaba Group Holding value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Alibaba Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alibaba Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alibaba Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alibaba Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alibaba Group | Alibaba Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alibaba Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alibaba Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alibaba Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.39 and 11.19, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8789 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.163 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9412 |
Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alibaba Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group
For every potential investor in Alibaba, whether a beginner or expert, Alibaba Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alibaba Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alibaba. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alibaba Group's price trends.Alibaba Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alibaba Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alibaba Group Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alibaba Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alibaba Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alibaba Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alibaba Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alibaba Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alibaba Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Alibaba Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 11478.69 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7049 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.49 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.43 |
Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alibaba Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alibaba Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alibaba pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Variance | 6.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Alibaba Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alibaba Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alibaba Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Alibaba Pink Sheet
| 0.85 | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
Moving against Alibaba Pink Sheet
| 0.45 | KULR | KULR Technology Group Financial Report 20th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alibaba Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alibaba Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alibaba Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alibaba Group Holding to buy it.
The correlation of Alibaba Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alibaba Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alibaba Group Holding moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alibaba Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alibaba Group Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alibaba Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Complementary Tools for Alibaba Pink Sheet analysis
When running Alibaba Group's price analysis, check to measure Alibaba Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alibaba Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alibaba Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alibaba Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alibaba Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alibaba Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. |