B of A Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BAC
 Stock
  

USD 31.56  0.43  1.38%   

B of A Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast B of A historical stock prices and determine the direction of Bank Of America's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of B of A historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although B of A naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Bank Of America systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of B of A fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of B of A to cross-verify your projections.
  
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B of A Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cash and Equivalents Turnover was at 0.26. The current year Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.0311, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 8.52. . B of A Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares was at 8.49 Billion. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 8.8 B, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is forecasted to decline to (25.8 B).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-08 B of A Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast B of A's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest B of A's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies B of A stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current B of A's open interest, investors have to compare it to B of A's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of B of A is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in B of A. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in B of A cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the B of A's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets B of A's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for B of A is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bank Of America value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bank Of America Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to B of A's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in B of A. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding B of A can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bank Of America. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
B of A's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for B of A's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average B of A's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on B of A.

B of A Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Of America on the next trading day is expected to be 32.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 0.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.01. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict B of A Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that B of A's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

B of A Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest B of AB of A Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

B of A Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting B of A's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. B of A's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.65 and 34.66, respectively. We have considered B of A's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 31.56
32.65
Expected Value
34.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of B of A stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent B of A stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.0421
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7871
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0224
SAESum of the absolute errors48.0106
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bank Of America. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict B of A. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for B of A

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Of America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of B of A's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of B of A in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.6231.6233.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.4036.9238.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
30.9331.6732.42
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
40.0051.1164.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as B of A. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against B of A's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, B of A's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bank Of America.

Other Forecasting Options for B of A

For every potential investor in B of A, whether a beginner or expert, B of A's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. B of A Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in B of A. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying B of A's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with B of A stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of B of A could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing B of A by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Bank Of America Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of B of A's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of B of A's current price.

B of A Risk Indicators

The analysis of B of A's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in B of A's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting B of A stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

B of A Investors Sentiment

The influence of B of A's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in B of A. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

B of A Implied Volatility

    
  33.31  
B of A's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bank Of America stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if B of A's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that B of A stock will not fluctuate a lot when B of A's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards B of A in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, B of A's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from B of A options trading.

Current Sentiment - BAC

Bank Of America Investor Sentiment

Predominant part of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Bank Of America. What is your opinion about investing in Bank Of America? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with B of A

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if B of A position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in B of A will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

B of A Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to B of A could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace B of A when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back B of A - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bank Of America to buy it.
The correlation of B of A is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as B of A moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bank Of America moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for B of A can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of B of A to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Bank Of America information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other B of A's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running Bank Of America price analysis, check to measure B of A's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy B of A is operating at the current time. Most of B of A's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of B of A's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move B of A's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of B of A to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is B of A's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of B of A. If investors know B of A will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about B of A listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.07
Market Capitalization
254.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.06
Return On Assets
0.01
Return On Equity
0.11
The market value of Bank Of America is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of B of A that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of B of A's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is B of A's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because B of A's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect B of A's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between B of A's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine B of A value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, B of A's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.