Bbva Banco Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

BBAR -  USA Stock  

USD 3.13  0.01  0.32%

Bbva Banco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bbva Banco historical stock prices and determine the direction of Bbva Banco Frances's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bbva Banco historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bbva Banco to cross-verify your projections.

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Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-20 Bbva Banco Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bbva Banco's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Bbva Banco's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Bbva Banco stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bbva Banco's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bbva Banco's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bbva Banco is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bbva Banco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bbva Banco cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bbva Banco's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bbva Banco's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Bbva Banco polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Bbva Banco Frances as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Bbva Banco Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Bbva Banco Frances on the next trading day is expected to be 2.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04389, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.31. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bbva Banco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bbva Banco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bbva Banco Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bbva Banco Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bbva Banco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bbva Banco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0313 and 6.18, respectively. We have considered Bbva Banco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.13
28th of July 2021
0.0313
Downside
2.90
Expected Value
6.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bbva Banco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bbva Banco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9844
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.169
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0511
SAESum of the absolute errors10.3072
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Bbva Banco historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Bbva Banco

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bbva Banco Frances. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bbva Banco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bbva Banco in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.163.176.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.543.827.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bbva Banco. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bbva Banco's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bbva Banco's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bbva Banco Frances.

Other Forecasting Options for Bbva Banco

For every potential investor in Bbva Banco, whether a beginner or expert, Bbva Banco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bbva Banco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bbva Banco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bbva Banco's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bbva Banco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bbva Banco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bbva Banco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Bbva Banco Frances Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bbva Banco's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bbva Banco's current price.

Bbva Banco Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bbva Banco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bbva Banco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Bbva Banco stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Bbva Banco without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Bbva Banco

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bbva Banco position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bbva Banco will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Bbva Banco Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bbva Banco and China Merchants Bank. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bbva Banco to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Bbva Banco Frances information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bbva Banco's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for Bbva Banco Stock analysis

When running Bbva Banco Frances price analysis, check to measure Bbva Banco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bbva Banco is operating at the current time. Most of Bbva Banco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bbva Banco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bbva Banco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bbva Banco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Bbva Banco Frances is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bbva Banco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bbva Banco's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bbva Banco's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bbva Banco's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bbva Banco Frances underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bbva Banco's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bbva Banco value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bbva Banco's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.