Atreca Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BCEL
 Stock
  

USD 0.97  0.0259  2.59%   

Atreca Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Atreca historical stock prices and determine the direction of Atreca Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Atreca historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Atreca naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Atreca Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Atreca fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atreca to cross-verify your projections.
  
Atreca Debt Non Current is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Debt Non Current is estimated at 3,695. Investments is expected to hike to about 68.7 M this year, although the value of Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income will most likely fall to (104.7 K).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Atreca Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Atreca's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Atreca's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Atreca stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Atreca's open interest, investors have to compare it to Atreca's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Atreca is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Atreca. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Atreca cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Atreca's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Atreca's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Atreca is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Atreca Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Atreca Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Atreca Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.008628, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atreca Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atreca's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Atreca Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AtrecaAtreca Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Atreca Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Atreca's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atreca's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.009741 and 5.58, respectively. We have considered Atreca's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.97
0.009741
Downside
0.98
Expected Value
5.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atreca stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atreca stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.3578
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0728
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0476
SAESum of the absolute errors4.4394
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Atreca Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Atreca. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Atreca

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atreca Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atreca's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Atreca in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.050.965.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.866.0410.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.971.431.88
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
12.0021.3330.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Atreca. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Atreca's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Atreca's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Atreca Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Atreca

For every potential investor in Atreca, whether a beginner or expert, Atreca's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atreca Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atreca. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atreca's price trends.

Atreca Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atreca stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atreca could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atreca by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Keurig Dr PepperCoca-Cola Femsa SABCoca-Cola EuropeanBritvic PLC ADRYakult Honsha CoLtdCoca-Cola BottlingArca Continental SABAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Atreca Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Atreca's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Atreca's current price.

Atreca Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atreca stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atreca shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atreca stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atreca Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Atreca Risk Indicators

The analysis of Atreca's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atreca's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Atreca stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Atreca without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Atreca

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Atreca position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Atreca will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Atreca

+0.72APLSApellis Pharmaceuticals Downward RallyPairCorr

Moving against Atreca

-0.85ABBVAbbVie Inc Sell-off TrendPairCorr
-0.83CABACabaletta Bio TrendingPairCorr
-0.81LLYEli Lilly And Sell-off TrendPairCorr
-0.78GILDGilead Sciences Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Atreca could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Atreca when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Atreca - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Atreca Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Atreca is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Atreca moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Atreca Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Atreca can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atreca to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Atreca Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Atreca's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for Atreca Stock analysis

When running Atreca Inc price analysis, check to measure Atreca's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Atreca is operating at the current time. Most of Atreca's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Atreca's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Atreca's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Atreca to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Atreca's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atreca. If investors know Atreca will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atreca listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
40.6 M
Return On Assets
(0.34) 
Return On Equity
(0.78) 
The market value of Atreca Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atreca that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atreca's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atreca's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atreca's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atreca's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atreca's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Atreca value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atreca's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.