Brinks Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BCO Stock | USD 86.29 0.07 0.08% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brinks Company on the next trading day is expected to be 86.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.30. Brinks Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Brinks stock prices and determine the direction of Brinks Company's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Brinks' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Brinks' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Brinks' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Brinks fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brinks to cross-verify your projections. Brinks |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Brinks Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Brinks' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Brinks' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Brinks stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Brinks' open interest, investors have to compare it to Brinks' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Brinks is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Brinks. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Brinks cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Brinks' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Brinks' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Brinks simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Brinks Company are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Brinks Company prices get older. Brinks Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brinks Company on the next trading day is expected to be 86.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brinks Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brinks' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Brinks Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Brinks | Brinks Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Brinks Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Brinks' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Brinks' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 84.90 and 87.69, respectively. We have considered Brinks' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brinks stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brinks stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5684 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0856 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9051 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.3047 |
Predictive Modules for Brinks
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brinks Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brinks' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Brinks
For every potential investor in Brinks, whether a beginner or expert, Brinks' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Brinks Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Brinks. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Brinks' price trends.Brinks Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Brinks stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Brinks could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Brinks by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Brinks Company Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Brinks' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Brinks' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Brinks Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Brinks stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Brinks shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Brinks stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Brinks Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Brinks Risk Indicators
The analysis of Brinks' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brinks' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brinks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Variance | 1.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Brinks
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Brinks position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Brinks will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Brinks Stock
| 0.88 | NL | NL Industries | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | WM | Waste Management Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | VSEC | VSE Corporation Financial Report 6th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Brinks Stock
| 0.77 | AMBI | Ambipar Emergency Report 10th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | HDSN | Hudson Technologies Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | CLVT | CLARIVATE PLC Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | ACCO | Acco Brands Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | LNZA | LanzaTech Global Financial Report 20th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Brinks could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Brinks when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Brinks - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Brinks Company to buy it.
The correlation of Brinks is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Brinks moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Brinks Company moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Brinks can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brinks to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Brinks Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Brinks' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Brinks Stock analysis
When running Brinks' price analysis, check to measure Brinks' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Brinks is operating at the current time. Most of Brinks' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Brinks' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Brinks' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Brinks to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Brinks' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Brinks. If investors know Brinks will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Brinks listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | Dividend Share 0.86 | Earnings Share 1.83 | Revenue Per Share 105.511 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.046 |
The market value of Brinks Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Brinks that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Brinks' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Brinks' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Brinks' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Brinks' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Brinks' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Brinks is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Brinks' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.