Belden Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| BDC Stock | USD 81.92 0.18 0.22% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Belden Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 87.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.14. Belden Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Belden stock prices and determine the direction of Belden Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Belden's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Belden's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Belden's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Belden fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Belden to cross-verify your projections. Belden |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Belden Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Belden's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Belden's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Belden stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Belden's open interest, investors have to compare it to Belden's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Belden is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Belden. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Belden cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Belden's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Belden's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Belden Inc is based on a synthetically constructed Beldendaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Belden 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 21st of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Belden Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 87.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.61, mean absolute percentage error of 17.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Belden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Belden's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Belden Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Belden | Belden Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Belden Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Belden's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Belden's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 85.36 and 89.82, respectively. We have considered Belden's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Belden stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Belden stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 84.2185 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.2338 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6132 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0416 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 148.1415 |
Predictive Modules for Belden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Belden Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Belden's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Belden
For every potential investor in Belden, whether a beginner or expert, Belden's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Belden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Belden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Belden's price trends.Belden Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Belden stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Belden could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Belden by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Belden Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Belden's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Belden's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Belden Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Belden stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Belden shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Belden stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Belden Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Belden Risk Indicators
The analysis of Belden's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Belden's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting belden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Belden
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Belden position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Belden will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Belden Stock
| 0.96 | CDW | CDW Corp Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Belden Stock
| 0.78 | AAPL | Apple Inc Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | EXTR | Extreme Networks Financial Report 24th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | LITE | Lumentum Holdings Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.58 | SSYS | Stratasys Financial Report 21st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | FKWL | Franklin Wireless Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Belden could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Belden when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Belden - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Belden Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Belden is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Belden moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Belden Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Belden can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Belden to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Belden Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Belden's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for Belden Stock analysis
When running Belden's price analysis, check to measure Belden's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Belden is operating at the current time. Most of Belden's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Belden's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Belden's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Belden to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope |
Is Belden's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Belden. If investors know Belden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Belden listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 5.66 | Revenue Per Share 59.476 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) |
The market value of Belden Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Belden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Belden's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Belden's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Belden's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Belden's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Belden's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Belden is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Belden's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.