Bloom Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BE Stock | USD 10.24 0.50 4.66% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bloom Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 9.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.97. Bloom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bloom Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Bloom Energy Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bloom Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bloom Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bloom Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bloom Energy fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bloom Energy to cross-verify your projections. Bloom |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Bloom Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bloom Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bloom Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bloom Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bloom Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bloom Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bloom Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bloom. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bloom Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bloom Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bloom Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Bloom Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bloom Energy Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Bloom Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bloom Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 9.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bloom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bloom Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bloom Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bloom Energy | Bloom Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bloom Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bloom Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bloom Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.04 and 14.09, respectively. We have considered Bloom Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bloom Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bloom Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1149 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4585 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0445 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.9666 |
Predictive Modules for Bloom Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bloom Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bloom Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bloom Energy
For every potential investor in Bloom, whether a beginner or expert, Bloom Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bloom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bloom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bloom Energy's price trends.Bloom Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bloom Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bloom Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bloom Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bloom Energy Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bloom Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bloom Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bloom Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bloom Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bloom Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bloom Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bloom Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bloom Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bloom Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bloom Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bloom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.56 | |||
| Variance | 20.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Bloom Energy Investors Sentiment
The influence of Bloom Energy's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Bloom. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Bloom Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bloom. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bloom can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bloom Energy Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bloom Energy's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Bloom Energy's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Bloom Energy's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Bloom Energy.
Bloom Energy Implied Volatility | 129.18 |
Bloom Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bloom Energy Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bloom Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bloom Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bloom Energy's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bloom Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bloom Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bloom Energy options trading.
Pair Trading with Bloom Energy
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bloom Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bloom Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Bloom Stock
| 0.63 | ESP | Espey Mfg Electronics | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | ELVA | Electrovaya Common Shares | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | ROBOF | RoboGroup TEK | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bloom Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bloom Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bloom Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bloom Energy Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Bloom Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bloom Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bloom Energy Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bloom Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bloom Energy to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Bloom Energy Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bloom Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Bloom Stock analysis
When running Bloom Energy's price analysis, check to measure Bloom Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bloom Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Bloom Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bloom Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bloom Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bloom Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bloom Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bloom Energy. If investors know Bloom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bloom Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.42) | Revenue Per Share 6.27 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) | Return On Assets (0.02) | Return On Equity (0.68) |
The market value of Bloom Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bloom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bloom Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bloom Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bloom Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bloom Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bloom Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bloom Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bloom Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.