BEL Small Index Forecast - Polynomial Regression

BELS Index   8,886  33.47  0.38%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of BEL Small on the next trading day is expected to be 8,798 with a mean absolute deviation of 83.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,098. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast BEL Small's index prices and determine the direction of BEL Small's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
Most investors in BEL Small cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, index markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BEL Small's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BEL Small's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
BEL Small polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for BEL Small as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

BEL Small Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of BEL Small on the next trading day is expected to be 8,798 with a mean absolute deviation of 83.58, mean absolute percentage error of 10,292, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,098.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BEL Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BEL Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BEL Small Index Forecast Pattern

BEL Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BEL Small's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BEL Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8,797 and 8,798, respectively. We have considered BEL Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8,886
8,798
Expected Value
8,798
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BEL Small index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BEL Small index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.3496
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation83.5805
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0091
SAESum of the absolute errors5098.4082
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the BEL Small historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for BEL Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BEL Small. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BEL Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for BEL Small

For every potential investor in BEL, whether a beginner or expert, BEL Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BEL Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BEL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BEL Small's price trends.

BEL Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BEL Small index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BEL Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BEL Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BEL Small Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BEL Small's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BEL Small's current price.

BEL Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BEL Small index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BEL Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BEL Small index market strength indicators, traders can identify BEL Small entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BEL Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of BEL Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BEL Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bel index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.