Bucharest BET-NG Index Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BETNG Index | 1,202 1.15 0.1% |
Most investors in Bucharest BET-NG cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, index markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bucharest BET-NG's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bucharest BET-NG's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Bucharest BET-NG is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bucharest BET-NG value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Bucharest BET-NG Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bucharest BET-NG on the next trading day is expected to be 1,198 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.96, mean absolute percentage error of 37.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 302.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bucharest Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bucharest BET-NG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bucharest BET-NG Index Forecast Pattern
Bucharest BET-NG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bucharest BET-NG's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bucharest BET-NG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,197 and 1,198, respectively. We have considered Bucharest BET-NG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bucharest BET-NG index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bucharest BET-NG index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.7408 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.961 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0042 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 302.6183 |
Predictive Modules for Bucharest BET-NG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bucharest BET-NG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bucharest BET-NG's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bucharest BET-NG. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bucharest BET-NG's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bucharest BET-NG's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bucharest BET-NG.
Other Forecasting Options for Bucharest BET-NG
For every potential investor in Bucharest, whether a beginner or expert, Bucharest BET-NG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bucharest Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bucharest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bucharest BET-NG's price trends.Bucharest BET-NG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bucharest BET-NG index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bucharest BET-NG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bucharest BET-NG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bucharest BET-NG Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bucharest BET-NG's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bucharest BET-NG's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bucharest BET-NG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bucharest BET-NG index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bucharest BET-NG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bucharest BET-NG index market strength indicators, traders can identify Bucharest BET-NG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0064 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1206.21 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1204.91 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 7.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.47) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.15) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 81.1 |
Bucharest BET-NG Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bucharest BET-NG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bucharest BET-NG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bucharest index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4784 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5308 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6198 | |||
| Variance | 0.3841 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4325 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2818 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bucharest BET-NG in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bucharest BET-NG's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bucharest BET-NG options trading.
Pair Trading with Bucharest BET-NG
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bucharest BET-NG position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bucharest BET-NG will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bucharest BET-NG could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bucharest BET-NG when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bucharest BET-NG - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bucharest BET-NG to buy it.
The correlation of Bucharest BET-NG is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bucharest BET-NG moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bucharest BET-NG moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bucharest BET-NG can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price. Note that the Bucharest BET-NG information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bucharest BET-NG's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.