Biglari Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| BH Stock | USD 199.73 3.16 1.61% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Biglari Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 198.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.27. Biglari Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Biglari Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Biglari Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Biglari Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Biglari Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Biglari Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Biglari Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biglari Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Biglari |
Most investors in Biglari Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Biglari Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Biglari Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Biglari Holdings is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Biglari Holdings Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Biglari Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 198.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.56, mean absolute percentage error of 24.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biglari Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biglari Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Biglari Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Biglari Holdings | Biglari Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Biglari Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Biglari Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Biglari Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 195.57 and 200.73, respectively. We have considered Biglari Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biglari Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biglari Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6328 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.0788 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5639 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 210.27 |
Predictive Modules for Biglari Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biglari Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Biglari Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Biglari Holdings
For every potential investor in Biglari, whether a beginner or expert, Biglari Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Biglari Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Biglari. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Biglari Holdings' price trends.Biglari Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Biglari Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Biglari Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Biglari Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Biglari Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Biglari Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Biglari Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Biglari Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Biglari Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Biglari Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Biglari Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Biglari Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Biglari Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Biglari Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Biglari Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biglari stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Biglari Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Biglari Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Biglari Holdings options trading.
Pair Trading with Biglari Holdings
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Biglari Holdings position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Biglari Holdings will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Biglari Stock
| 0.94 | SG | Sweetgreen Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | WING | Wingstop Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Biglari Stock
| 0.91 | GAN | Gan Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | NDLS | Noodles Company Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | RICK | RCI Hospitality Holdings Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | SBUX | Starbucks Financial Report 7th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | ARKR | Ark Restaurants Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Biglari Holdings could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Biglari Holdings when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Biglari Holdings - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Biglari Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Biglari Holdings is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Biglari Holdings moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Biglari Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Biglari Holdings can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biglari Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Biglari Stock please use our How to Invest in Biglari Holdings guide.Note that the Biglari Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Biglari Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Biglari Stock analysis
When running Biglari Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Biglari Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Biglari Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Biglari Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Biglari Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Biglari Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Biglari Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Biglari Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biglari Holdings. If investors know Biglari will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Biglari Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.519 | Earnings Share 37.9 | Revenue Per Share 1.3 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) | Return On Assets 0.0293 |
The market value of Biglari Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Biglari that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Biglari Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Biglari Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Biglari Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Biglari Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biglari Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Biglari Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biglari Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.