Brighthouse Financial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BHF Stock | USD 49.90 0.75 1.53% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brighthouse Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 49.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.58. Brighthouse Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Brighthouse Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Brighthouse Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Brighthouse Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brighthouse Financial to cross-verify your projections. Brighthouse |
Most investors in Brighthouse Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Brighthouse Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Brighthouse Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Brighthouse Financial works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Brighthouse Financial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brighthouse Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 49.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77, mean absolute percentage error of 1.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brighthouse Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brighthouse Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Brighthouse Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Brighthouse Financial | Brighthouse Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Brighthouse Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Brighthouse Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Brighthouse Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.45 and 51.79, respectively. We have considered Brighthouse Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brighthouse Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brighthouse Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2084 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7725 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.5792 |
Predictive Modules for Brighthouse Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brighthouse Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brighthouse Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Brighthouse Financial
For every potential investor in Brighthouse, whether a beginner or expert, Brighthouse Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Brighthouse Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Brighthouse. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Brighthouse Financial's price trends.View Brighthouse Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Brighthouse Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Brighthouse Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Brighthouse Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Brighthouse Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Brighthouse Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Brighthouse Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Brighthouse Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Brighthouse Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Brighthouse Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Brighthouse Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brighthouse Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brighthouse stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Brighthouse Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Brighthouse Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Brighthouse Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Brighthouse Stock
| 0.67 | FG | FG Annuities Life Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Brighthouse Stock
| 0.51 | MET-PA | MetLife Preferred Stock | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | MFC | Manulife Financial Corp Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Brighthouse Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Brighthouse Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Brighthouse Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Brighthouse Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Brighthouse Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Brighthouse Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Brighthouse Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Brighthouse Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brighthouse Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Brighthouse Stock please use our How to Invest in Brighthouse Financial guide.Note that the Brighthouse Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Brighthouse Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for Brighthouse Stock analysis
When running Brighthouse Financial's price analysis, check to measure Brighthouse Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Brighthouse Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Brighthouse Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Brighthouse Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Brighthouse Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Brighthouse Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments |
Is Brighthouse Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Brighthouse Financial. If investors know Brighthouse will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Brighthouse Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Brighthouse Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Brighthouse that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Brighthouse Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Brighthouse Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Brighthouse Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Brighthouse Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Brighthouse Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Brighthouse Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Brighthouse Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.