BHP Group Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BHP Stock | USD 57.99 0.42 0.72% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BHP Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 57.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.19. BHP Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BHP Group stock prices and determine the direction of BHP Group Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BHP Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although BHP Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of BHP Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of BHP Group fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BHP Group to cross-verify your projections. BHP |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 BHP Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast BHP Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in BHP Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for BHP Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current BHP Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to BHP Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of BHP Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in BHP. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in BHP Group cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BHP Group's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BHP Group's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for BHP Group works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. BHP Group Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BHP Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 57.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BHP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BHP Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BHP Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BHP Group | BHP Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
BHP Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BHP Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BHP Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.44 and 59.36, respectively. We have considered BHP Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BHP Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BHP Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1211 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7532 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.192 |
Predictive Modules for BHP Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BHP Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BHP Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for BHP Group
For every potential investor in BHP, whether a beginner or expert, BHP Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BHP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BHP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BHP Group's price trends.BHP Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BHP Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BHP Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BHP Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BHP Group Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BHP Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BHP Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BHP Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BHP Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BHP Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BHP Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BHP Group Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 49174.54 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.27 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.49) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.42) |
BHP Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of BHP Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BHP Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bhp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
BHP Group Investors Sentiment
The influence of BHP Group's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in BHP. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to BHP Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BHP. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BHP can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BHP Group Limited. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
BHP Group's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for BHP Group's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average BHP Group's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on BHP Group.
BHP Group Implied Volatility | 37.61 |
BHP Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BHP Group Limited stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BHP Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BHP Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when BHP Group's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BHP Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BHP Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BHP Group options trading.
Pair Trading with BHP Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BHP Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BHP Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with BHP Stock
| 0.63 | MP | MP Materials Corp Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | NB | NioCorp Developments | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | VZLA | Vizsla Resources Corp Financial Report 18th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against BHP Stock
| 0.56 | IPX | IperionX Limited American | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | ELBM | Electra Battery Materials Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | NMG | Nouveau Monde Graphite Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BHP Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BHP Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BHP Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BHP Group Limited to buy it.
The correlation of BHP Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BHP Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BHP Group Limited moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BHP Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BHP Group to cross-verify your projections. Note that the BHP Group Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BHP Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for BHP Stock analysis
When running BHP Group's price analysis, check to measure BHP Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BHP Group is operating at the current time. Most of BHP Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BHP Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BHP Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BHP Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies |
Is BHP Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BHP Group. If investors know BHP will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BHP Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.86) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 2.92 | Revenue Per Share 21.974 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.057 |
The market value of BHP Group Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BHP that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BHP Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BHP Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BHP Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BHP Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BHP Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BHP Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BHP Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.