Burke Herbert Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BHRB Stock | USD 51.93 0.25 0.48% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Burke Herbert Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 50.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.21. Burke Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Burke Herbert stock prices and determine the direction of Burke Herbert Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Burke Herbert's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Burke Herbert's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Burke Herbert's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Burke Herbert fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Burke Herbert to cross-verify your projections. Burke |
Most investors in Burke Herbert cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Burke Herbert's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Burke Herbert's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Burke Herbert is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Burke Herbert Financial value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Burke Herbert Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Burke Herbert Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 50.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Burke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Burke Herbert's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Burke Herbert Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Burke Herbert | Burke Herbert Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Burke Herbert Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Burke Herbert's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Burke Herbert's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.76 and 53.28, respectively. We have considered Burke Herbert's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Burke Herbert stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Burke Herbert stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.587 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0035 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.2144 |
Predictive Modules for Burke Herbert
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Burke Herbert Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Burke Herbert's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Burke Herbert
For every potential investor in Burke, whether a beginner or expert, Burke Herbert's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Burke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Burke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Burke Herbert's price trends.Burke Herbert Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Burke Herbert stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Burke Herbert could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Burke Herbert by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Burke Herbert Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Burke Herbert's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Burke Herbert's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Burke Herbert Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Burke Herbert stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Burke Herbert shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Burke Herbert stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Burke Herbert Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Burke Herbert Risk Indicators
The analysis of Burke Herbert's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Burke Herbert's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting burke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.79 | |||
| Variance | 7.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Burke Herbert in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Burke Herbert's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Burke Herbert options trading.
Pair Trading with Burke Herbert
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Burke Herbert position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Burke Herbert will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Burke Stock
| 0.83 | AX | Axos Financial Financial Report 25th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | BY | Byline Bancorp Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Burke Stock
| 0.65 | TECTP | Tectonic Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | DB | Deutsche Bank AG Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | CFG-PD | Citizens Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.57 | KB | KB Financial Group Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | WF | Woori Financial Group Financial Report 21st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Burke Herbert could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Burke Herbert when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Burke Herbert - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Burke Herbert Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Burke Herbert is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Burke Herbert moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Burke Herbert Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Burke Herbert can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Burke Herbert to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for Burke Stock analysis
When running Burke Herbert's price analysis, check to measure Burke Herbert's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Burke Herbert is operating at the current time. Most of Burke Herbert's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Burke Herbert's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Burke Herbert's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Burke Herbert to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Burke Herbert's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Burke Herbert. If investors know Burke will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Burke Herbert listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | Dividend Share 2.12 | Earnings Share 3.02 | Revenue Per Share 14.665 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.24) |
The market value of Burke Herbert Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Burke that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Burke Herbert's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Burke Herbert's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Burke Herbert's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Burke Herbert's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Burke Herbert's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Burke Herbert is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Burke Herbert's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.