Topbuild Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BLD Stock | USD 388.27 6.86 1.74% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Topbuild Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 387.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 403.79. Topbuild Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Topbuild Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Topbuild Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Topbuild Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Topbuild Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Topbuild Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Topbuild Corp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Topbuild Corp to cross-verify your projections. Topbuild |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Topbuild Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Topbuild Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Topbuild Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Topbuild Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Topbuild Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Topbuild Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Topbuild Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Topbuild. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Topbuild Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Topbuild Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Topbuild Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Topbuild Corp works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Topbuild Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Topbuild Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 387.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.73, mean absolute percentage error of 69.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 403.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Topbuild Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Topbuild Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Topbuild Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Topbuild Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Topbuild Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Topbuild Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 385.54 and 389.66, respectively. We have considered Topbuild Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Topbuild Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Topbuild Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8945 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.7298 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 403.79 |
Predictive Modules for Topbuild Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Topbuild Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Topbuild Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Topbuild Corp
For every potential investor in Topbuild, whether a beginner or expert, Topbuild Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Topbuild Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Topbuild. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Topbuild Corp's price trends.Topbuild Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Topbuild Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Topbuild Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Topbuild Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Topbuild Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Topbuild Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Topbuild Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Topbuild Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Topbuild Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Topbuild Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Topbuild Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Topbuild Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 12043.32 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.36) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 395.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 392.93 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (10.42) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (6.86) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 78.18 |
Topbuild Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Topbuild Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Topbuild Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting topbuild stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Variance | 4.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Topbuild Corp
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Topbuild Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Topbuild Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Topbuild Stock
| 0.7 | DOGZ | Dogness International | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | VSTO | Vista Outdoor Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | VZIO | Vizio Holding Corp Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Topbuild Stock
| 0.77 | ESCA | Escalade Incorporated Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | LANV | Lanvin Group Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | VUZI | Vuzix Corp Cmn Tech Boost | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | VRA | Vera Bradley Financial Report 5th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | NKE | Nike Inc Financial Report 4th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Topbuild Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Topbuild Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Topbuild Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Topbuild Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Topbuild Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Topbuild Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Topbuild Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Topbuild Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Topbuild Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Topbuild Stock refer to our How to Trade Topbuild Stock guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Complementary Tools for Topbuild Stock analysis
When running Topbuild Corp's price analysis, check to measure Topbuild Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Topbuild Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Topbuild Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Topbuild Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Topbuild Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Topbuild Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Topbuild Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Topbuild Corp. If investors know Topbuild will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Topbuild Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.019 | Earnings Share 19.32 | Revenue Per Share 164.402 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 | Return On Assets 0.1145 |
The market value of Topbuild Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Topbuild that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Topbuild Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Topbuild Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Topbuild Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Topbuild Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Topbuild Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Topbuild Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Topbuild Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.