Bellerophon Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

BLPHDelisted Stock  USD 0.07  0.04  35.00%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bellerophon Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be -0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.03  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.76. Bellerophon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bellerophon Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Bellerophon Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bellerophon Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.
  
Most investors in Bellerophon Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bellerophon Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bellerophon Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Bellerophon Therapeutics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Bellerophon Therapeutics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Bellerophon Therapeutics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Bellerophon Therapeutics.

Bellerophon Therapeutics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bellerophon Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be -0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bellerophon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bellerophon Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bellerophon Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bellerophon TherapeuticsBellerophon Therapeutics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bellerophon Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bellerophon Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0064
MADMean absolute deviation0.0299
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1507
SAESum of the absolute errors1.7617
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Bellerophon Therapeutics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Bellerophon Therapeutics observations.

Predictive Modules for Bellerophon Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bellerophon Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bellerophon Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.060.070.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.060.060.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bellerophon Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bellerophon Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bellerophon Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bellerophon Therapeutics.

Bellerophon Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bellerophon Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bellerophon Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bellerophon Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bellerophon Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bellerophon Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bellerophon Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bellerophon Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bellerophon Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bellerophon Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bellerophon Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bellerophon Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bellerophon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bellerophon Therapeutics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bellerophon Therapeutics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bellerophon Therapeutics options trading.

Pair Trading with Bellerophon Therapeutics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bellerophon Therapeutics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bellerophon Therapeutics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bellerophon Stock

  0.61MCRB Seres Therapeutics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Bellerophon Stock

  0.68DNTH Dianthus Therapeutics Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.67MDWD Mediwound Financial Report 4th of June 2024 PairCorr
  0.46MGNX MacroGenics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.44EQ Equillium Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bellerophon Therapeutics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bellerophon Therapeutics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bellerophon Therapeutics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bellerophon Therapeutics to buy it.
The correlation of Bellerophon Therapeutics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bellerophon Therapeutics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bellerophon Therapeutics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bellerophon Therapeutics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.
You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Other Consideration for investing in Bellerophon Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Bellerophon Therapeutics check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Bellerophon Therapeutics' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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