BELLUS Health Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| BLUDelisted Stock | USD 14.74 0.00 0.00% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BELLUS Health on the next trading day is expected to be 14.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.89. BELLUS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BELLUS Health stock prices and determine the direction of BELLUS Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BELLUS Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. BELLUS |
Most investors in BELLUS Health cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BELLUS Health's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BELLUS Health's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for BELLUS Health - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When BELLUS Health prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in BELLUS Health price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of BELLUS Health. BELLUS Health Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BELLUS Health on the next trading day is expected to be 14.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BELLUS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BELLUS Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BELLUS Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BELLUS Health | BELLUS Health Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BELLUS Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BELLUS Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0864 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2693 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0222 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.8879 |
Predictive Modules for BELLUS Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BELLUS Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BELLUS Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View BELLUS Health Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BELLUS Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BELLUS Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BELLUS Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BELLUS Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BELLUS Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pair Trading with BELLUS Health
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BELLUS Health position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BELLUS Health will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to BELLUS Health could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BELLUS Health when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BELLUS Health - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BELLUS Health to buy it.
The correlation of BELLUS Health is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BELLUS Health moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BELLUS Health moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BELLUS Health can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Other Consideration for investing in BELLUS Stock
If you are still planning to invest in BELLUS Health check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the BELLUS Health's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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