Bank of Marin Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BMRC Stock | USD 15.00 0.04 0.27% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of Marin on the next trading day is expected to be 15.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.92. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bank of Marin stock prices and determine the direction of Bank of Marin's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bank of Marin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bank of Marin's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bank of Marin's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bank of Marin fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of Marin to cross-verify your projections. Bank |
Most investors in Bank of Marin cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bank of Marin's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bank of Marin's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Bank of Marin simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Bank of Marin are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Bank of Marin prices get older. Bank of Marin Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of Marin on the next trading day is expected to be 15.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of Marin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank of Marin Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank of Marin | Bank of Marin Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bank of Marin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank of Marin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of Marin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.91 and 17.09, respectively. We have considered Bank of Marin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of Marin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of Marin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2898 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0917 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.282 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.92 |
Predictive Modules for Bank of Marin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of Marin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bank of Marin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bank of Marin
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of Marin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of Marin's price trends.View Bank of Marin Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank of Marin Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank of Marin's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank of Marin's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bank of Marin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of Marin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of Marin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of Marin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank of Marin entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bank of Marin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank of Marin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of Marin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bank of Marin in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bank of Marin's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bank of Marin options trading.
Pair Trading with Bank of Marin
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bank of Marin position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bank of Marin will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Bank Stock
| 0.69 | AX | Axos Financial Financial Report 25th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | BY | Byline Bancorp Report 25th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Bank Stock
| 0.84 | TECTP | Tectonic Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | CFG-PD | Citizens Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | WF | Woori Financial Group Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | KB | KB Financial Group Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | DB | Deutsche Bank AG Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bank of Marin could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bank of Marin when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bank of Marin - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bank of Marin to buy it.
The correlation of Bank of Marin is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bank of Marin moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bank of Marin moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bank of Marin can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of Marin to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Bank Stock refer to our How to Trade Bank Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Bank Stock analysis
When running Bank of Marin's price analysis, check to measure Bank of Marin's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank of Marin is operating at the current time. Most of Bank of Marin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank of Marin's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank of Marin's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank of Marin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bank of Marin's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank of Marin. If investors know Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bank of Marin listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 1.24 | Revenue Per Share 6.57 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.46) |
The market value of Bank of Marin is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank of Marin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank of Marin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank of Marin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank of Marin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bank of Marin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bank of Marin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bank of Marin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.