Barnes Noble Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

BNED Stock  USD 0.23  0.01  4.17%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Barnes Noble Education on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.65. Barnes Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Barnes Noble stock prices and determine the direction of Barnes Noble Education's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Barnes Noble's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Barnes Noble's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Barnes Noble's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Barnes Noble fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnes Noble to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Barnes Noble's Payables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 1.82, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 10.62. . As of April 19, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 53.3 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is expected to decline to about (65.1 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Barnes Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Barnes Noble's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Barnes Noble's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Barnes Noble stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open Interest
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Barnes Noble's open interest, investors have to compare it to Barnes Noble's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Barnes Noble is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Barnes. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Barnes Noble cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Barnes Noble's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Barnes Noble's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Barnes Noble is based on an artificially constructed time series of Barnes Noble daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Barnes Noble 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Barnes Noble Education on the next trading day is expected to be 0.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Barnes Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Barnes Noble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Barnes Noble Stock Forecast Pattern

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Barnes Noble Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Barnes Noble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Barnes Noble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 10.69, respectively. We have considered Barnes Noble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.23
0.47
Expected Value
10.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Barnes Noble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Barnes Noble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria99.4233
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0446
MADMean absolute deviation0.0878
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.2026
SAESum of the absolute errors4.6513
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Barnes Noble Education 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Barnes Noble

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Barnes Noble Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Barnes Noble's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.2510.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.051.0511.27
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.193.503.89
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.27-0.36-0.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Barnes Noble. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Barnes Noble's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Barnes Noble's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Barnes Noble Education.

Other Forecasting Options for Barnes Noble

For every potential investor in Barnes, whether a beginner or expert, Barnes Noble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Barnes Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Barnes. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Barnes Noble's price trends.

Barnes Noble Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Barnes Noble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Barnes Noble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Barnes Noble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Barnes Noble Education Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Barnes Noble's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Barnes Noble's current price.

Barnes Noble Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Barnes Noble stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Barnes Noble shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Barnes Noble stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Barnes Noble Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Barnes Noble Risk Indicators

The analysis of Barnes Noble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Barnes Noble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting barnes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Barnes Noble

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Barnes Noble position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Barnes Noble will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Barnes Stock

  0.69JD JD Inc Adr Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.55GPC Genuine PartsPairCorr
  0.44AEO American Eagle Outfitters Financial Report 22nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.44BBY Best Buy Financial Report 23rd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.42CAL Continental Financial Report 6th of June 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Barnes Noble could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Barnes Noble when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Barnes Noble - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Barnes Noble Education to buy it.
The correlation of Barnes Noble is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Barnes Noble moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Barnes Noble Education moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Barnes Noble can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Barnes Noble Education is a strong investment it is important to analyze Barnes Noble's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Barnes Noble's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Barnes Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barnes Noble to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Barnes Noble Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Barnes Noble's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running Barnes Noble's price analysis, check to measure Barnes Noble's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Barnes Noble is operating at the current time. Most of Barnes Noble's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Barnes Noble's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Barnes Noble's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Barnes Noble to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Barnes Noble's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Barnes Noble. If investors know Barnes will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Barnes Noble listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.084
Earnings Share
(1.46)
Revenue Per Share
29.794
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.043
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Barnes Noble Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Barnes that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Barnes Noble's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Barnes Noble's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Barnes Noble's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Barnes Noble's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Barnes Noble's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Barnes Noble is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Barnes Noble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.