Bionano Genomics Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BNGO Stock  USD 0.87  0.11  11.22%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bionano Genomics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.84 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.04  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.36. Bionano Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bionano Genomics stock prices and determine the direction of Bionano Genomics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bionano Genomics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bionano Genomics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bionano Genomics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bionano Genomics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bionano Genomics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Bionano Stock, please use our How to Invest in Bionano Genomics guide.
  
As of the 16th of April 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 3.27, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 1.10. . As of the 16th of April 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 35.9 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (113.4 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Bionano Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bionano Genomics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bionano Genomics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bionano Genomics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bionano Genomics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Bionano Genomics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bionano Genomics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bionano. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bionano Genomics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bionano Genomics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bionano Genomics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Bionano Genomics works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Bionano Genomics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bionano Genomics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bionano Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bionano Genomics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bionano Genomics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bionano GenomicsBionano Genomics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bionano Genomics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bionano Genomics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bionano Genomics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.69, respectively. We have considered Bionano Genomics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.87
0.84
Expected Value
4.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bionano Genomics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bionano Genomics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0081
MADMean absolute deviation0.04
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0353
SAESum of the absolute errors2.3607
When Bionano Genomics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Bionano Genomics trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Bionano Genomics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bionano Genomics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bionano Genomics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bionano Genomics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.040.844.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.093.947.79
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.0113.2014.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bionano Genomics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bionano Genomics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bionano Genomics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bionano Genomics.

Other Forecasting Options for Bionano Genomics

For every potential investor in Bionano, whether a beginner or expert, Bionano Genomics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bionano Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bionano. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bionano Genomics' price trends.

Bionano Genomics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bionano Genomics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bionano Genomics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bionano Genomics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bionano Genomics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bionano Genomics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bionano Genomics' current price.

Bionano Genomics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bionano Genomics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bionano Genomics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bionano Genomics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bionano Genomics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bionano Genomics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bionano Genomics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bionano Genomics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bionano stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Bionano Genomics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bionano Genomics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bionano Genomics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bionano Stock

  0.73VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Financial Report 6th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Bionano Stock

  0.7ERNA Eterna TherapeuticsPairCorr
  0.7NVO Novo Nordisk AS Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.69A Agilent Technologies Financial Report 28th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.62DSGN Design Therapeutics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.58LLY Eli Lilly Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bionano Genomics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bionano Genomics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bionano Genomics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bionano Genomics to buy it.
The correlation of Bionano Genomics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bionano Genomics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bionano Genomics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bionano Genomics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Bionano Genomics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bionano Genomics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bionano Genomics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bionano Genomics Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bionano Genomics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Bionano Stock, please use our How to Invest in Bionano Genomics guide.
Note that the Bionano Genomics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bionano Genomics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for Bionano Stock analysis

When running Bionano Genomics' price analysis, check to measure Bionano Genomics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bionano Genomics is operating at the current time. Most of Bionano Genomics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bionano Genomics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bionano Genomics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bionano Genomics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bionano Genomics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bionano Genomics. If investors know Bionano will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bionano Genomics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(6.81)
Revenue Per Share
1.058
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.305
Return On Assets
(0.33)
Return On Equity
(1.35)
The market value of Bionano Genomics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bionano that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bionano Genomics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bionano Genomics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bionano Genomics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bionano Genomics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bionano Genomics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bionano Genomics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bionano Genomics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.