Invesco Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| BRCNX Fund | USD 7.06 0.03 0.42% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Invesco Balanced Risk Modity on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.93. Invesco Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Invesco Balanced stock prices and determine the direction of Invesco Balanced Risk Modity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Invesco Balanced's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Balanced to cross-verify your projections. Invesco |
Most investors in Invesco Balanced cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Invesco Balanced's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Invesco Balanced's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Invesco Balanced polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Invesco Balanced Risk Modity as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Invesco Balanced Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Invesco Balanced Risk Modity on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Invesco Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Invesco Balanced | Invesco Balanced Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Invesco Balanced Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Invesco Balanced's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Balanced's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.59 and 7.72, respectively. We have considered Invesco Balanced's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.4047 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0481 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.007 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.9332 |
Predictive Modules for Invesco Balanced
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Balanced Risk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Balanced
For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Balanced's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Balanced's price trends.Invesco Balanced Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Balanced mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Balanced could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Balanced by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Invesco Balanced Risk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Invesco Balanced's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Invesco Balanced's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Invesco Balanced Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco Balanced mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco Balanced shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco Balanced mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco Balanced Risk Modity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) |
Invesco Balanced Risk Indicators
The analysis of Invesco Balanced's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Balanced's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4766 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3786 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5804 | |||
| Variance | 0.3368 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3372 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1434 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Invesco Balanced
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Invesco Balanced position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Invesco Balanced will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Invesco Mutual Fund
| 0.61 | OARDX | Oppenheimer Rising | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | AMHYX | Invesco High Yield | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Invesco Balanced could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Invesco Balanced when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Invesco Balanced - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Invesco Balanced Risk Modity to buy it.
The correlation of Invesco Balanced is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Invesco Balanced moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Invesco Balanced Risk moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Invesco Balanced can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Balanced to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..