BRF SA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BRFS Stock  USD 3.26  0.09  2.84%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of BRF SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 2.93 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.08  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.85. BRF Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BRF SA stock prices and determine the direction of BRF SA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BRF SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although BRF SA's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of BRF SA's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of BRF SA fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BRF SA to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, BRF SA's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 9.91 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 3.42 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 1.3 B in 2024. Net Loss is likely to gain to about (2.7 B) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 BRF Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast BRF SA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in BRF SA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for BRF SA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current BRF SA's open interest, investors have to compare it to BRF SA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of BRF SA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in BRF. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in BRF SA cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BRF SA's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BRF SA's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for BRF SA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of BRF SA ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

BRF SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of BRF SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 2.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BRF Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BRF SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BRF SA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest BRF SABRF SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

BRF SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BRF SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BRF SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.19 and 5.67, respectively. We have considered BRF SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.26
2.93
Expected Value
5.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BRF SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BRF SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2283
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0782
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0264
SAESum of the absolute errors4.8506
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of BRF SA ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict BRF SA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for BRF SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BRF SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BRF SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.463.266.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.313.115.91
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.731.902.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BRF SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BRF SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BRF SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in BRF SA ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for BRF SA

For every potential investor in BRF, whether a beginner or expert, BRF SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BRF Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BRF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BRF SA's price trends.

BRF SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BRF SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BRF SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BRF SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BRF SA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BRF SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BRF SA's current price.

BRF SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BRF SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BRF SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BRF SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BRF SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BRF SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of BRF SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BRF SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BRF SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BRF SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BRF SA options trading.

Pair Trading with BRF SA

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BRF SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BRF SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against BRF Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to BRF SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BRF SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BRF SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BRF SA ADR to buy it.
The correlation of BRF SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BRF SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BRF SA ADR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BRF SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether BRF SA ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze BRF SA's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact BRF SA's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding BRF Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BRF SA to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the BRF SA ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BRF SA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.

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When running BRF SA's price analysis, check to measure BRF SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BRF SA is operating at the current time. Most of BRF SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BRF SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BRF SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BRF SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is BRF SA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BRF SA. If investors know BRF will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BRF SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.02
Earnings Share
(0.30)
Revenue Per Share
39.415
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
Return On Assets
0.0065
The market value of BRF SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BRF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BRF SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BRF SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BRF SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BRF SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BRF SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BRF SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BRF SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.