British Amer Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BTI
 Stock
  

USD 42.16  0.15  0.35%   

British Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast British Amer historical stock prices and determine the direction of British American Tobacco's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of British Amer historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of British Amer to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 British Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast British Amer's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest British Amer's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies British Amer stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current British Amer's open interest, investors have to compare it to British Amer's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of British Amer is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in British. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in British Amer cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the British Amer's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets British Amer's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for British Amer is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of British American Tobacco value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

British Amer Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of British American Tobacco on the next trading day is expected to be 43.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict British Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that British Amer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

British Amer Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest British AmerBritish Amer Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

British Amer Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting British Amer's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. British Amer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.35 and 45.50, respectively. We have considered British Amer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 42.16
43.92
Expected Value
45.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of British Amer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent British Amer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.3266
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5618
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors34.2699
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of British American Tobacco. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict British Amer. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for British Amer

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as British American Tobacco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of British Amer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of British Amer in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
40.7342.3143.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
38.0845.5647.15
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0050.5651.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as British Amer. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against British Amer's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, British Amer's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in British American Tobacco.

Other Forecasting Options for British Amer

For every potential investor in British, whether a beginner or expert, British Amer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. British Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in British. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying British Amer's price trends.

British Amer Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with British Amer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of British Amer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing British Amer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Ambev SA ADRAdecoagro SAAlico IncBG FoodsBRF SA ADRBridgford FoodsAnheuser Busch InbevBeyond MeatConAgra FoodsCal-Maine FoodsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

British American Tobacco Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of British Amer's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of British Amer's current price.

British Amer Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how British Amer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading British Amer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying British Amer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify British American Tobacco entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

British Amer Risk Indicators

The analysis of British Amer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in British Amer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting British Amer stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards British Amer in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, British Amer's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from British Amer options trading.

Pair Trading with British Amer

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if British Amer position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in British Amer will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with British Amer

+0.65CVGWCalavo Growers Fiscal Year End 19th of December 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to British Amer could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace British Amer when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back British Amer - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling British American Tobacco to buy it.
The correlation of British Amer is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as British Amer moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if British American Tobacco moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for British Amer can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of British Amer to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

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When running British American Tobacco price analysis, check to measure British Amer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy British Amer is operating at the current time. Most of British Amer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of British Amer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move British Amer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of British Amer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is British Amer's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of British Amer. If investors know British will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about British Amer listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.43) 
Market Capitalization
95 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.057
Return On Assets
0.0472
Return On Equity
0.0814
The market value of British American Tobacco is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of British that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of British Amer's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is British Amer's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because British Amer's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect British Amer's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between British Amer's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine British Amer value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, British Amer's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.