Compania Mina Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BVN -  USA Stock  

USD 8.85  0.02  0.23%

Compania Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Compania Mina historical stock prices and determine the direction of Compania Mina Buenaventura's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Compania Mina historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Compania Mina naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Compania Mina Buenaventura systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Compania Mina fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compania Mina to cross-verify your projections.

Compania Stock Forecast 

 
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Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.19 this year. Weighted Average Shares is expected to rise to about 323.1 M this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted will most likely fall to about 227.5 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-01-21 Compania Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Compania Mina's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Compania Mina's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Compania Mina stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Compania Mina's open interest, investors have to compare it to Compania Mina's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Compania Mina is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Compania. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Compania Mina cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Compania Mina's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Compania Mina's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Compania Mina is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Compania Mina Buenaventura value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Compania Mina Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compania Mina Buenaventura on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.30. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compania Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compania Mina's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Compania Mina Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Compania MinaCompania Mina Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Compania Mina Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Compania Mina's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Compania Mina's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.33 and 12.31, respectively. We have considered Compania Mina's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.85
21st of January 2022
9.32
Expected Value
12.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compania Mina stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compania Mina stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.369
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2017
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0273
SAESum of the absolute errors12.3048
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Compania Mina Buenaventura. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Compania Mina. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Compania Mina

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compania Mina Buenav. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Compania Mina's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Compania Mina in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
5.938.8611.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.098.0210.95
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.007.007.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.850.850.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Compania Mina. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Compania Mina's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Compania Mina's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Compania Mina Buenav.

Other Forecasting Options for Compania Mina

For every potential investor in Compania, whether a beginner or expert, Compania Mina's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Compania Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Compania. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Compania Mina's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compania Mina stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compania Mina could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compania Mina by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Compania Mina Buenav Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Compania Mina's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Compania Mina's current price.

Compania Mina Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Compania Mina stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Compania Mina shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Compania Mina stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Compania Mina Buenaventura entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Compania Mina Risk Indicators

The analysis of Compania Mina's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compania Mina's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Compania Mina stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Compania Mina Investors Sentiment

The influence of Compania Mina's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Compania. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Compania Mina Implied Volatility

    
  237.96  
Compania Mina's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Compania Mina Buenaventura stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Compania Mina's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Compania Mina stock will not fluctuate a lot when Compania Mina's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Compania Mina in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Compania Mina's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Compania Mina options trading.

Current Sentiment - BVN

Compania Mina Buenav Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Compania Mina Buenaventura. What is your opinion about investing in Compania Mina Buenaventura? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Compania Mina

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Compania Mina position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Compania Mina will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Compania Mina Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Compania Mina and Hycroft Mining Holding. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compania Mina to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Compania Mina Buenav information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Compania Mina's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Compania Stock analysis

When running Compania Mina Buenav price analysis, check to measure Compania Mina's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Compania Mina is operating at the current time. Most of Compania Mina's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Compania Mina's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Compania Mina's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Compania Mina to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Compania Mina's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Compania Mina. If investors know Compania will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Compania Mina listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Compania Mina Buenav is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Compania that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Compania Mina's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Compania Mina's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Compania Mina's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Compania Mina's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Compania Mina's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Compania Mina value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Compania Mina's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.