Bavarian Nordic Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

BVNRY Stock  USD 7.46  0.06  0.81%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bavarian Nordic AS on the next trading day is expected to be 7.43 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.16  and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.55. Bavarian Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bavarian Nordic stock prices and determine the direction of Bavarian Nordic AS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bavarian Nordic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bavarian Nordic to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Bavarian Nordic cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bavarian Nordic's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bavarian Nordic's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Bavarian Nordic - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Bavarian Nordic prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Bavarian Nordic price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Bavarian Nordic AS.

Bavarian Nordic Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bavarian Nordic AS on the next trading day is expected to be 7.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bavarian Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bavarian Nordic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bavarian Nordic Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bavarian NordicBavarian Nordic Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bavarian Nordic Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bavarian Nordic's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bavarian Nordic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.93 and 9.93, respectively. We have considered Bavarian Nordic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.46
7.43
Expected Value
9.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bavarian Nordic pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bavarian Nordic pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0308
MADMean absolute deviation0.1618
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0205
SAESum of the absolute errors9.5467
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Bavarian Nordic observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Bavarian Nordic AS observations.

Predictive Modules for Bavarian Nordic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bavarian Nordic AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bavarian Nordic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.967.469.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.036.539.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bavarian Nordic. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bavarian Nordic's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bavarian Nordic's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bavarian Nordic AS.

Other Forecasting Options for Bavarian Nordic

For every potential investor in Bavarian, whether a beginner or expert, Bavarian Nordic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bavarian Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bavarian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bavarian Nordic's price trends.

Bavarian Nordic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bavarian Nordic pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bavarian Nordic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bavarian Nordic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bavarian Nordic AS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bavarian Nordic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bavarian Nordic's current price.

Bavarian Nordic Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bavarian Nordic pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bavarian Nordic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bavarian Nordic pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Bavarian Nordic AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bavarian Nordic Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bavarian Nordic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bavarian Nordic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bavarian pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Bavarian Nordic

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bavarian Nordic position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bavarian Nordic will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Bavarian Pink Sheet

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  0.63MRK Merck Company Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.6PG Procter Gamble Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.58SGEN Seagen Inc Financial Report 25th of April 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bavarian Nordic could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bavarian Nordic when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bavarian Nordic - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bavarian Nordic AS to buy it.
The correlation of Bavarian Nordic is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bavarian Nordic moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bavarian Nordic AS moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bavarian Nordic can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bavarian Nordic to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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When running Bavarian Nordic's price analysis, check to measure Bavarian Nordic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bavarian Nordic is operating at the current time. Most of Bavarian Nordic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bavarian Nordic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bavarian Nordic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bavarian Nordic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Bavarian Nordic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bavarian Nordic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bavarian Nordic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.