Blackstone Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BX Stock  USD 130.89  3.01  2.35%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Blackstone Group on the next trading day is expected to be 130.89 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.66  and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.50. Blackstone Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Blackstone stock prices and determine the direction of Blackstone Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Blackstone's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Blackstone's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Blackstone's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Blackstone fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blackstone to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Blackstone's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 2.89 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 0.11 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 616.8 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 1.7 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Blackstone Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Blackstone's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Blackstone's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Blackstone stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Blackstone's open interest, investors have to compare it to Blackstone's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Blackstone is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Blackstone. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Blackstone cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Blackstone's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Blackstone's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Blackstone simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Blackstone Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Blackstone Group prices get older.

Blackstone Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Blackstone Group on the next trading day is expected to be 130.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66, mean absolute percentage error of 4.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blackstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blackstone's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Blackstone Stock Forecast Pattern

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Blackstone Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Blackstone's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blackstone's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 129.23 and 132.55, respectively. We have considered Blackstone's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
130.89
129.23
Downside
130.89
Expected Value
132.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blackstone stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blackstone stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5655
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0157
MADMean absolute deviation1.6639
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors101.5
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Blackstone Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Blackstone observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Blackstone

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blackstone Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blackstone's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
129.23130.89132.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
120.07121.73143.98
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
126.69129.20131.71
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
97.96107.65119.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blackstone. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blackstone's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blackstone's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Blackstone Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Blackstone

For every potential investor in Blackstone, whether a beginner or expert, Blackstone's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blackstone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blackstone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blackstone's price trends.

Blackstone Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blackstone stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blackstone could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blackstone by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Blackstone Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Blackstone's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Blackstone's current price.

Blackstone Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blackstone stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blackstone shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blackstone stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blackstone Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Blackstone Risk Indicators

The analysis of Blackstone's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blackstone's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting blackstone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Blackstone Investors Sentiment

The influence of Blackstone's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Blackstone. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Blackstone's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Blackstone. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Blackstone can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Blackstone Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Blackstone's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Blackstone's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Blackstone's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Blackstone.

Blackstone Implied Volatility

    
  43.66  
Blackstone's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Blackstone Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Blackstone's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Blackstone stock will not fluctuate a lot when Blackstone's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Blackstone in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Blackstone's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Blackstone options trading.

Pair Trading with Blackstone

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Blackstone position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Blackstone will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Blackstone Stock

  0.5SNTG Sentage Holdings Report 6th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.47MCBK Madison County FinancialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Blackstone could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Blackstone when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Blackstone - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Blackstone Group to buy it.
The correlation of Blackstone is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Blackstone moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Blackstone Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Blackstone can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Blackstone Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Blackstone's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Blackstone Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Blackstone Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blackstone to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for Blackstone Stock analysis

When running Blackstone's price analysis, check to measure Blackstone's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blackstone is operating at the current time. Most of Blackstone's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blackstone's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blackstone's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blackstone to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Blackstone's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blackstone. If investors know Blackstone will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blackstone listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73)
Dividend Share
3.35
Earnings Share
1.84
Revenue Per Share
10.175
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.30)
The market value of Blackstone Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blackstone that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blackstone's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blackstone's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blackstone's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blackstone's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blackstone's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blackstone is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blackstone's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.