Byrna Technologies Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| BYRN Stock | USD 12.75 0.05 0.39% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Byrna Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 13.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.27. Byrna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Byrna Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Byrna Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Byrna Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Byrna Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Byrna Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Byrna Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Byrna Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Byrna |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Byrna Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Byrna Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Byrna Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Byrna Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Byrna Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Byrna Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Byrna Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Byrna. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Byrna Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Byrna Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Byrna Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Byrna Technologies polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Byrna Technologies as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Byrna Technologies Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Byrna Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 13.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63, mean absolute percentage error of 0.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Byrna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Byrna Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Byrna Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Byrna Technologies | Byrna Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Byrna Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Byrna Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Byrna Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.16 and 18.95, respectively. We have considered Byrna Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Byrna Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Byrna Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4896 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6274 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0556 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.272 |
Predictive Modules for Byrna Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Byrna Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Byrna Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Byrna Technologies
For every potential investor in Byrna, whether a beginner or expert, Byrna Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Byrna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Byrna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Byrna Technologies' price trends.Byrna Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Byrna Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Byrna Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Byrna Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Byrna Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Byrna Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Byrna Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Byrna Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Byrna Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Byrna Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Byrna Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Byrna Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Byrna Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Byrna Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Byrna Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting byrna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.38 | |||
| Variance | 28.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.7 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Byrna Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Byrna Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Byrna Technologies options trading.
Pair Trading with Byrna Technologies
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Byrna Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Byrna Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Byrna Stock
| 0.93 | CW | Curtiss Wright Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | EH | Ehang Holdings Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | GD | General Dynamics Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Byrna Stock
| 0.87 | EVEX | Eve Holding Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | BA | Boeing Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | DPRO | Draganfly Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | AZ | A2Z Smart Technologies | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Byrna Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Byrna Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Byrna Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Byrna Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Byrna Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Byrna Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Byrna Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Byrna Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Byrna Technologies to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Byrna Stock, please use our How to Invest in Byrna Technologies guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for Byrna Stock analysis
When running Byrna Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Byrna Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Byrna Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Byrna Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Byrna Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Byrna Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Byrna Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated |
Is Byrna Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Byrna Technologies. If investors know Byrna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Byrna Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.27) | Revenue Per Share 2.317 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.98 | Return On Assets (0.07) | Return On Equity (0.14) |
The market value of Byrna Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Byrna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Byrna Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Byrna Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Byrna Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Byrna Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Byrna Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Byrna Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Byrna Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.