Citigroup Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

C Stock

USD 44.25 1.37 3.00%

Citigroup Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Citigroup historical stock prices and determine the direction of Citigroup's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Citigroup historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Citigroup naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Citigroup systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Citigroup fundamentals over time.

Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections.

The current year Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to grow to 0.47. The current year Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.0304. Citigroup Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 1.96 Billion.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-03-24 Citigroup Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Citigroup's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Citigroup's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Citigroup stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.

Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Citigroup's open interest, investors have to compare it to Citigroup's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Citigroup is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Citigroup. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Most investors in Citigroup cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Citigroup's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Citigroup's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for Citigroup is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Citigroup value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

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Citigroup Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 41.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87, mean absolute percentage error of 1.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.74.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citigroup Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citigroup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Citigroup Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Citigroup

Citigroup Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Citigroup Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Citigroup's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citigroup's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.66 and 44.40, respectively. We have considered Citigroup's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

Market Value 44.25

38.66

Downside

41.53

Expected Value

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

44.40

Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citigroup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citigroup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	37.489
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.8672
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0181
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	14.7416

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Citigroup. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Citigroup. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Citigroup

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citigroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Citigroup's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Citigroup in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
42.29	44.25	46.21

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
39.83	51.00	52.96

Details

Bollinger

Band Projection (param)

Lower	Middle Band	Upper
42.99	45.18	47.37

Details

17 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
41.00	55.94	87.00

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Citigroup. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Citigroup's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Citigroup's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Citigroup.

Other Forecasting Options for Citigroup

For every potential investor in Citigroup, whether a beginner or expert, Citigroup's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citigroup Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citigroup. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citigroup's price trends.

Citigroup Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citigroup stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citigroup could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citigroup by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Ferrari NVInnoviz TechnologiesGrupo Televisa SABGentexIridium CommunicationsCleantech BiofuelsMCBC HoldingsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

Citigroup Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Citigroup's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Citigroup's current price.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Citigroup Risk Indicators

The analysis of Citigroup's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citigroup's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Citigroup stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	1.93
	Standard Deviation	2.78
	Variance	7.72

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Citigroup without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Citigroup

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Citigroup position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Citigroup will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Citigroup could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Citigroup when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Citigroup - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Citigroup to buy it.

The correlation of Citigroup is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Citigroup moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Citigroup moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Citigroup can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.

Pair Correlation Correlation Matching

Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Citigroup information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Citigroup's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for Citigroup Stock analysis

When running Citigroup price analysis, check to measure Citigroup's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citigroup is operating at the current time. Most of Citigroup's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citigroup's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citigroup's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citigroup to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Citigroup's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citigroup. If investors know Citigroup will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Citigroup listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.21)

Dividend Share

2.04

Earnings Share

7.02

Revenue Per Share

36.246

Quarterly Revenue Growth

(0.011)

The market value of Citigroup is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Citigroup that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Citigroup's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Citigroup's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Citigroup's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Citigroup's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Citigroup's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Citigroup value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Citigroup's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Citigroup Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Open Interest Agains t 2023-03-24 Citigroup Option Contracts

Citigroup Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of March

Citigroup Stock Forecast Pattern

Citigroup Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

Predictive Modules for Citigroup

Other Forecasting Options for Citigroup

Citigroup Related Equities

Citigroup Technical and Predictive Analytics

Citigroup Risk Indicators

Be your own money manager

Did you try this?

Run Portfolio Optimization Now

Portfolio Optimization

Pair Trading with Citigroup

Complementary Tools for Citigroup Stock analysis

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