Chemocentryx Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CCXI -  USA Stock  

USD 14.37  0.62  4.14%

Chemocentryx Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Chemocentryx historical stock prices and determine the direction of Chemocentryx's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Chemocentryx historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Chemocentryx naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Chemocentryx systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Chemocentryx fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chemocentryx to cross-verify your projections.

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Chemocentryx Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to drop in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 8.98. The current Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated to increase to 4.01, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to decrease to 1.53. . The current Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is estimated to increase to about 384.1 M, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 57.7 M.
Most investors in Chemocentryx cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Chemocentryx's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Chemocentryx's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Chemocentryx works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Chemocentryx Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chemocentryx on the next trading day is expected to be 13.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53, mean absolute percentage error of 16.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.09. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chemocentryx Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chemocentryx's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chemocentryx Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ChemocentryxChemocentryx Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Chemocentryx Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chemocentryx's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chemocentryx's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.58 and 24.31, respectively. We have considered Chemocentryx's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.37
24th of July 2021
13.95
Expected Value
24.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chemocentryx stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chemocentryx stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2282
MADMean absolute deviation1.5269
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1051
SAESum of the absolute errors90.0867
When Chemocentryx prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Chemocentryx trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Chemocentryx observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Chemocentryx

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chemocentryx. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chemocentryx's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chemocentryx in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.0514.4224.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.3117.6828.05
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.9914.5815.16
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
17.0028.1751.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chemocentryx. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chemocentryx's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chemocentryx's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chemocentryx.

Other Forecasting Options for Chemocentryx

For every potential investor in Chemocentryx, whether a beginner or expert, Chemocentryx's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chemocentryx Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chemocentryx. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chemocentryx's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chemocentryx stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chemocentryx could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chemocentryx by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Chemocentryx Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chemocentryx's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chemocentryx's current price.

Chemocentryx Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chemocentryx stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chemocentryx shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chemocentryx stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chemocentryx entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Chemocentryx Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chemocentryx's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chemocentryx's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Chemocentryx stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Chemocentryx Investors Sentiment

The influence of Chemocentryx's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Chemocentryx. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - CCXI

Chemocentryx Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Chemocentryx. What is your opinion about investing in Chemocentryx? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Chemocentryx

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Chemocentryx position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Chemocentryx will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Chemocentryx Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Chemocentryx and Dynavax Technologies. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chemocentryx to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Chemocentryx information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Chemocentryx's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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When running Chemocentryx price analysis, check to measure Chemocentryx's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chemocentryx is operating at the current time. Most of Chemocentryx's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chemocentryx's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chemocentryx's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chemocentryx to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Chemocentryx is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chemocentryx that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chemocentryx's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chemocentryx's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chemocentryx's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chemocentryx underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chemocentryx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Chemocentryx value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chemocentryx's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.