American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CDWFX -  USA Fund  

USD 12.63  0.08  0.64%

American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Funds historical stock prices and determine the direction of American Funds Developing's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Funds historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Funds to cross-verify your projections.

American Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in American Funds cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Funds' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Funds' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
American Funds simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for American Funds Developing are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as American Funds Developing prices get older.

American Funds Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Funds Developing on the next trading day is expected to be 12.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.010102, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.53. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Funds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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American Funds Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Funds' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Funds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.87 and 13.39, respectively. We have considered American Funds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.63
1st of December 2021
12.63
Expected Value
13.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Funds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Funds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.6776
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0125
MADMean absolute deviation0.0755
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0058
SAESum of the absolute errors4.53
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting American Funds Developing forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent American Funds observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for American Funds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Funds Developing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Funds in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.8712.6313.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.9712.7313.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
12.6312.9613.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Funds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Funds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Funds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Funds Developing.

Other Forecasting Options for American Funds

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Funds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Funds' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Funds mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Funds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Funds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

American Funds Developing Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Funds' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Funds' current price.

American Funds Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Funds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Funds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting American Funds stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

American Funds Investors Sentiment

The influence of American Funds' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Funds in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Funds' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Funds options trading.

Current Sentiment - CDWFX

American Funds Developing Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their opinion about investing in American Funds Developing. What is your sentiment towards investing in American Funds Developing? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with American Funds

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Funds position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Funds will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

American Funds Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Funds and Vanguard Emerging Mkts. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Funds to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Funds Developing information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Funds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Funds Developing price analysis, check to measure American Funds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Funds is operating at the current time. Most of American Funds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Funds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Funds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Funds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Funds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Funds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Funds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.