Cerevel Therapeutics Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

CERE Stock  USD 42.38  0.02  0.05%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 41.92 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.68  and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.63. Cerevel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cerevel Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cerevel Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Cerevel Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cerevel Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cerevel Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cerevel Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Cerevel Therapeutics' Receivables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 1.90, whereas Inventory Turnover is projected to grow to (2.62). . As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 88.2 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is expected to decline to about (424.4 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Cerevel Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cerevel Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cerevel Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cerevel Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cerevel Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cerevel Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cerevel Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cerevel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Cerevel Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cerevel Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cerevel Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings is based on a synthetically constructed Cerevel Therapeuticsdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Cerevel Therapeutics 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 41.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cerevel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cerevel Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cerevel Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cerevel TherapeuticsCerevel Therapeutics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cerevel Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cerevel Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cerevel Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.24 and 42.60, respectively. We have considered Cerevel Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
42.38
41.92
Expected Value
42.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cerevel Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cerevel Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria82.5857
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0123
MADMean absolute deviation0.6817
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors28.6305
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Cerevel Therapeutics 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Cerevel Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cerevel Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cerevel Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
41.7042.3843.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.4338.1146.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
42.3542.3842.41
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
30.9434.0037.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cerevel Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cerevel Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cerevel Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cerevel Therapeutics.

Other Forecasting Options for Cerevel Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Cerevel, whether a beginner or expert, Cerevel Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cerevel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cerevel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cerevel Therapeutics' price trends.

Cerevel Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cerevel Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cerevel Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cerevel Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cerevel Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cerevel Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cerevel Therapeutics' current price.

Cerevel Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cerevel Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cerevel Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cerevel Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cerevel Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cerevel Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cerevel Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cerevel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cerevel Therapeutics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cerevel Therapeutics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cerevel Therapeutics options trading.

Pair Trading with Cerevel Therapeutics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cerevel Therapeutics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cerevel Therapeutics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Cerevel Stock

  0.42MGNX MacroGenics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cerevel Therapeutics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cerevel Therapeutics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cerevel Therapeutics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Cerevel Therapeutics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cerevel Therapeutics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cerevel Therapeutics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cerevel Therapeutics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Cerevel Therapeutics is a strong investment it is important to analyze Cerevel Therapeutics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Cerevel Therapeutics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Cerevel Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cerevel Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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Is Cerevel Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cerevel Therapeutics. If investors know Cerevel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cerevel Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(2.67)
Return On Assets
(0.25)
Return On Equity
(0.72)
The market value of Cerevel Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cerevel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cerevel Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cerevel Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cerevel Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cerevel Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cerevel Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cerevel Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cerevel Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.