CF Industries Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

CF Stock  USD 82.61  0.80  0.98%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CF Industries Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 83.41 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.04  and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.62. CF Industries Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CF Industries stock prices and determine the direction of CF Industries Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CF Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CF Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CF Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CF Industries fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CF Industries to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, CF Industries' Asset Turnover is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. . The CF Industries' current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 208.8 M. The CF Industries' current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 4 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 CF Industries Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CF Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CF Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CF Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CF Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to CF Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CF Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CF Industries. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CF Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CF Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CF Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
CF Industries polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for CF Industries Holdings as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

CF Industries Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CF Industries Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 83.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 1.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CF Industries Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CF Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CF Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CF IndustriesCF Industries Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CF Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CF Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CF Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.02 and 84.81, respectively. We have considered CF Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
82.61
83.41
Expected Value
84.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CF Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CF Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3848
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0422
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors64.6193
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the CF Industries historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for CF Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CF Industries Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CF Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.2882.6784.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
74.3585.4886.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
81.4882.4883.47
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
81.3989.4499.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CF Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CF Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CF Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CF Industries Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for CF Industries

For every potential investor in CF Industries, whether a beginner or expert, CF Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CF Industries Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CF Industries. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CF Industries' price trends.

CF Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CF Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CF Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CF Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CF Industries Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CF Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CF Industries' current price.

CF Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CF Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CF Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CF Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CF Industries Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CF Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of CF Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CF Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cf industries stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

CF Industries Investors Sentiment

The influence of CF Industries' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in CF Industries. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to CF Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CF Industries. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CF Industries can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CF Industries Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
CF Industries' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for CF Industries' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average CF Industries' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on CF Industries.

CF Industries Implied Volatility

    
  35.43  
CF Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CF Industries Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CF Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CF Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when CF Industries' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CF Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CF Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CF Industries options trading.

Pair Trading with CF Industries

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CF Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CF Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to CF Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CF Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CF Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CF Industries Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of CF Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CF Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CF Industries Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CF Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether CF Industries Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze CF Industries' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CF Industries' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding CF Industries Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CF Industries to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the CF Industries Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CF Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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When running CF Industries' price analysis, check to measure CF Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CF Industries is operating at the current time. Most of CF Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CF Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CF Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CF Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CF Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.67)
Dividend Share
1.6
Earnings Share
7.87
Revenue Per Share
34.304
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.40)
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.