Fondo Mutuo Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

CFMDIVO Etf  CLP 1,397  10.20  0.74%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fondo Mutuo ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 1,394 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 486.78. Fondo Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Fondo Mutuo is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fondo Mutuo ETF value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fondo Mutuo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of July 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fondo Mutuo ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 1,394 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.98, mean absolute percentage error of 89.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 486.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fondo Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fondo Mutuo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fondo Mutuo Etf Forecast Pattern

Fondo Mutuo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fondo Mutuo's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fondo Mutuo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,393 and 1,395, respectively. We have considered Fondo Mutuo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,397
1,394
Expected Value
1,395
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fondo Mutuo etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fondo Mutuo etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.6085
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation7.98
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0057
SAESum of the absolute errors486.7791
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fondo Mutuo ETF. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fondo Mutuo. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fondo Mutuo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fondo Mutuo ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fondo Mutuo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,3861,3871,388
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,3031,3041,525
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,2901,3861,482
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fondo Mutuo. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fondo Mutuo's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fondo Mutuo's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fondo Mutuo ETF.

Other Forecasting Options for Fondo Mutuo

For every potential investor in Fondo, whether a beginner or expert, Fondo Mutuo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fondo Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fondo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fondo Mutuo's price trends.

Fondo Mutuo Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fondo Mutuo etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fondo Mutuo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fondo Mutuo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fondo Mutuo ETF Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fondo Mutuo's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fondo Mutuo's current price.

Fondo Mutuo Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fondo Mutuo etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fondo Mutuo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fondo Mutuo etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Fondo Mutuo ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fondo Mutuo Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fondo Mutuo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fondo Mutuo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fondo etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Fondo Mutuo

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Fondo Mutuo position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Fondo Mutuo will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Fondo Mutuo could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Fondo Mutuo when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Fondo Mutuo - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Fondo Mutuo ETF to buy it.
The correlation of Fondo Mutuo is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Fondo Mutuo moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Fondo Mutuo ETF moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Fondo Mutuo can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Fondo Etf

Fondo Mutuo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fondo Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fondo with respect to the benefits of owning Fondo Mutuo security.