CullenFrost Bankers Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CFR Stock | USD 109.09 1.80 1.68% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CullenFrost Bankers on the next trading day is expected to be 109.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.08. CullenFrost Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CullenFrost Bankers stock prices and determine the direction of CullenFrost Bankers's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CullenFrost Bankers' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CullenFrost Bankers' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CullenFrost Bankers' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CullenFrost Bankers fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CullenFrost Bankers to cross-verify your projections. CullenFrost |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 CullenFrost Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CullenFrost Bankers' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CullenFrost Bankers' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CullenFrost Bankers stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CullenFrost Bankers' open interest, investors have to compare it to CullenFrost Bankers' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CullenFrost Bankers is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CullenFrost. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CullenFrost Bankers cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CullenFrost Bankers' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CullenFrost Bankers' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
CullenFrost Bankers simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for CullenFrost Bankers are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as CullenFrost Bankers prices get older. CullenFrost Bankers Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CullenFrost Bankers on the next trading day is expected to be 109.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CullenFrost Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CullenFrost Bankers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CullenFrost Bankers Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CullenFrost Bankers | CullenFrost Bankers Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CullenFrost Bankers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CullenFrost Bankers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CullenFrost Bankers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 107.65 and 110.53, respectively. We have considered CullenFrost Bankers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CullenFrost Bankers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CullenFrost Bankers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1724 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0207 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1847 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.08 |
Predictive Modules for CullenFrost Bankers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CullenFrost Bankers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CullenFrost Bankers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for CullenFrost Bankers
For every potential investor in CullenFrost, whether a beginner or expert, CullenFrost Bankers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CullenFrost Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CullenFrost. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CullenFrost Bankers' price trends.CullenFrost Bankers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CullenFrost Bankers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CullenFrost Bankers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CullenFrost Bankers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CullenFrost Bankers Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CullenFrost Bankers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CullenFrost Bankers' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CullenFrost Bankers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CullenFrost Bankers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CullenFrost Bankers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CullenFrost Bankers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CullenFrost Bankers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CullenFrost Bankers Risk Indicators
The analysis of CullenFrost Bankers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CullenFrost Bankers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cullenfrost stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
CullenFrost Bankers Investors Sentiment
The influence of CullenFrost Bankers' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in CullenFrost. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to CullenFrost Bankers' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CullenFrost. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CullenFrost can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CullenFrost Bankers. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
CullenFrost Bankers' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for CullenFrost Bankers' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average CullenFrost Bankers' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on CullenFrost Bankers.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CullenFrost Bankers in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CullenFrost Bankers' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CullenFrost Bankers options trading.
Pair Trading with CullenFrost Bankers
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CullenFrost Bankers position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CullenFrost Bankers will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to CullenFrost Bankers could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CullenFrost Bankers when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CullenFrost Bankers - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CullenFrost Bankers to buy it.
The correlation of CullenFrost Bankers is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CullenFrost Bankers moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CullenFrost Bankers moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CullenFrost Bankers can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CullenFrost Bankers to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in CullenFrost Stock, please use our How to Invest in CullenFrost Bankers guide.Note that the CullenFrost Bankers information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CullenFrost Bankers' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for CullenFrost Stock analysis
When running CullenFrost Bankers' price analysis, check to measure CullenFrost Bankers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CullenFrost Bankers is operating at the current time. Most of CullenFrost Bankers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CullenFrost Bankers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CullenFrost Bankers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CullenFrost Bankers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk |
Is CullenFrost Bankers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CullenFrost Bankers. If investors know CullenFrost will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CullenFrost Bankers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | Dividend Share 3.58 | Earnings Share 9.1 | Revenue Per Share 30.232 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of CullenFrost Bankers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CullenFrost that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CullenFrost Bankers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CullenFrost Bankers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CullenFrost Bankers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CullenFrost Bankers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CullenFrost Bankers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CullenFrost Bankers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CullenFrost Bankers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.