Credit Suisse Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

CHIAX Fund  USD 6.40  0.01  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Credit Suisse Floating on the next trading day is expected to be 6.39 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.01  and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.59. Credit Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Credit Suisse stock prices and determine the direction of Credit Suisse Floating's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Credit Suisse's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Credit Suisse to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Credit Suisse cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Credit Suisse's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Credit Suisse's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Credit Suisse is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Credit Suisse Floating value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Credit Suisse Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Credit Suisse Floating on the next trading day is expected to be 6.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Credit Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Credit Suisse's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Credit Suisse Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Credit SuisseCredit Suisse Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Credit Suisse Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Credit Suisse's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Credit Suisse's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.22 and 6.56, respectively. We have considered Credit Suisse's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.40
6.39
Expected Value
6.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Credit Suisse mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Credit Suisse mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.0711
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0095
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0015
SAESum of the absolute errors0.5918
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Credit Suisse Floating. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Credit Suisse. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Credit Suisse

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Credit Suisse Floating. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Credit Suisse's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.236.406.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.216.386.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Credit Suisse. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Credit Suisse's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Credit Suisse's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Credit Suisse Floating.

Other Forecasting Options for Credit Suisse

For every potential investor in Credit, whether a beginner or expert, Credit Suisse's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Credit Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Credit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Credit Suisse's price trends.

Credit Suisse Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Credit Suisse mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Credit Suisse could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Credit Suisse by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Credit Suisse Floating Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Credit Suisse's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Credit Suisse's current price.

Credit Suisse Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Credit Suisse mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Credit Suisse shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Credit Suisse mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Credit Suisse Floating entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Credit Suisse Risk Indicators

The analysis of Credit Suisse's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Credit Suisse's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting credit mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Credit Suisse in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Credit Suisse's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Credit Suisse options trading.

Pair Trading with Credit Suisse

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Credit Suisse position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Credit Suisse will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Credit Mutual Fund

  1.0CHICX Credit Suisse FloatingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Credit Suisse could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Credit Suisse when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Credit Suisse - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Credit Suisse Floating to buy it.
The correlation of Credit Suisse is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Credit Suisse moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Credit Suisse Floating moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Credit Suisse can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Credit Suisse to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Credit Suisse Floating information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Credit Suisse's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Credit Mutual Fund analysis

When running Credit Suisse's price analysis, check to measure Credit Suisse's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Credit Suisse is operating at the current time. Most of Credit Suisse's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Credit Suisse's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Credit Suisse's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Credit Suisse to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Sectors
List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities
Top Crypto Exchanges
Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
ETF Categories
List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Please note, there is a significant difference between Credit Suisse's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Credit Suisse is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Credit Suisse's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.