Chesapeake Energy Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| CHK Stock | USD 87.15 0.12 0.14% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Chesapeake Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 87.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.81. Chesapeake Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Chesapeake Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Chesapeake Energy Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Chesapeake Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Chesapeake Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Chesapeake Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Chesapeake Energy fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chesapeake Energy to cross-verify your projections. Chesapeake |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Chesapeake Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Chesapeake Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Chesapeake Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Chesapeake Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Chesapeake Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Chesapeake Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Chesapeake Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Chesapeake. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Chesapeake Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Chesapeake Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Chesapeake Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Chesapeake Energy Corp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Chesapeake Energy 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Chesapeake Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 87.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chesapeake Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chesapeake Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chesapeake Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chesapeake Energy | Chesapeake Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Chesapeake Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chesapeake Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chesapeake Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.15 and 89.14, respectively. We have considered Chesapeake Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chesapeake Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chesapeake Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.5633 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5071 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1195 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0135 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.81 |
Predictive Modules for Chesapeake Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chesapeake Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Chesapeake Energy
For every potential investor in Chesapeake, whether a beginner or expert, Chesapeake Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chesapeake Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chesapeake. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chesapeake Energy's price trends.View Chesapeake Energy Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chesapeake Energy Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chesapeake Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chesapeake Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chesapeake Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chesapeake Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chesapeake Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chesapeake Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chesapeake Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 16427.19 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.07) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 87.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 87.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.48) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 71.17 |
Chesapeake Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chesapeake Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chesapeake Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chesapeake stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Chesapeake Energy Investors Sentiment
The influence of Chesapeake Energy's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Chesapeake. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Chesapeake Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Chesapeake. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chesapeake can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chesapeake Energy Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Chesapeake Energy's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Chesapeake Energy's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Chesapeake Energy's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Chesapeake Energy.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Chesapeake Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Chesapeake Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Chesapeake Energy options trading.
Pair Trading with Chesapeake Energy
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Chesapeake Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Chesapeake Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Chesapeake Stock
| 0.97 | AR | Antero Resources Corp Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.96 | PR | Permian Resources Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | SD | SandRidge Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | SM | SM Energy Earnings Call Next Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Chesapeake Stock
| 0.7 | EP | Empire Petroleum Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | VIVK | Vivakor Report 23rd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Chesapeake Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Chesapeake Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Chesapeake Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Chesapeake Energy Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Chesapeake Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Chesapeake Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Chesapeake Energy Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Chesapeake Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chesapeake Energy to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Chesapeake Stock please use our How to buy in Chesapeake Stock guide.Note that the Chesapeake Energy Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Chesapeake Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for Chesapeake Stock analysis
When running Chesapeake Energy's price analysis, check to measure Chesapeake Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chesapeake Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Chesapeake Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chesapeake Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chesapeake Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chesapeake Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chesapeake Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chesapeake Energy. If investors know Chesapeake will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chesapeake Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.83) | Dividend Share 3.62 | Earnings Share 16.92 | Revenue Per Share 45.521 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.59) |
The market value of Chesapeake Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chesapeake that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chesapeake Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chesapeake Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chesapeake Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chesapeake Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chesapeake Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chesapeake Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chesapeake Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.