Commercial International OTC Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CIBEY Stock | USD 1.67 0.01 0.60% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial International Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 1.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.14. Commercial OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Commercial International stock prices and determine the direction of Commercial International Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Commercial International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial International to cross-verify your projections. Commercial |
Most investors in Commercial International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Commercial International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Commercial International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Commercial International works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Commercial International Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial International Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 1.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commercial OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commercial International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commercial International OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Commercial International | Commercial International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Commercial International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commercial International's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commercial International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.37, respectively. We have considered Commercial International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commercial International otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commercial International otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0056 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0363 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.1388 |
Predictive Modules for Commercial International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commercial International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Commercial International
For every potential investor in Commercial, whether a beginner or expert, Commercial International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commercial OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commercial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commercial International's price trends.View Commercial International Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commercial International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The otc stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Commercial International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Commercial International's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Commercial International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commercial International otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commercial International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commercial International otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commercial International Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Commercial International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commercial International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commercial International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commercial otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Variance | 13.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Commercial International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Commercial International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Commercial International options trading.
Pair Trading with Commercial International
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Commercial International position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Commercial International will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Commercial OTC Stock
| 0.62 | CIHKY | China Merchants Bank Normal Trading | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | CIHHF | China Merchants Bank | PairCorr |
Moving against Commercial OTC Stock
| 0.54 | INTC | Intel Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Commercial International could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Commercial International when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Commercial International - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Commercial International Bank to buy it.
The correlation of Commercial International is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Commercial International moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Commercial International moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Commercial International can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial International to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Commercial International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Commercial International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Commercial OTC Stock analysis
When running Commercial International's price analysis, check to measure Commercial International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial International is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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