Cargojet Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CJT Stock  CAD 111.90  3.81  3.29%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cargojet on the next trading day is expected to be 120.37 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.98  and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.00. Cargojet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cargojet stock prices and determine the direction of Cargojet's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cargojet's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cargojet to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Cargojet cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cargojet's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cargojet's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Cargojet - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Cargojet prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Cargojet price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Cargojet.

Cargojet Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cargojet on the next trading day is expected to be 112.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78, mean absolute percentage error of 4.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cargojet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cargojet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cargojet Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CargojetCargojet Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cargojet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cargojet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cargojet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.74 and 114.22, respectively. We have considered Cargojet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
111.90
110.74
Downside
112.48
Expected Value
114.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cargojet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cargojet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2901
MADMean absolute deviation1.7845
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0156
SAESum of the absolute errors105.2856
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Cargojet observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Cargojet observations.

Predictive Modules for Cargojet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cargojet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cargojet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
110.05111.79113.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
111.29113.03114.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cargojet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cargojet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cargojet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cargojet.

Other Forecasting Options for Cargojet

For every potential investor in Cargojet, whether a beginner or expert, Cargojet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cargojet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cargojet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cargojet's price trends.

Cargojet Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cargojet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cargojet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cargojet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cargojet Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cargojet's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cargojet's current price.

Cargojet Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cargojet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cargojet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cargojet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cargojet entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cargojet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cargojet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cargojet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cargojet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Cargojet

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cargojet position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cargojet will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Cargojet Stock

  0.61WTE Westshore TerminalsPairCorr

Moving against Cargojet Stock

  0.83BNS Bank of Nova ScotiaPairCorr
  0.81FFN North American FinancialPairCorr
  0.79FTG Firan TechnologyPairCorr
  0.77JPM JPMorgan ChasePairCorr
  0.77BOFA Bank Of AmericaPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cargojet could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cargojet when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cargojet - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cargojet to buy it.
The correlation of Cargojet is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cargojet moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cargojet moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cargojet can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cargojet to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Cargojet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cargojet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cargojet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.