Colgate Palmolive Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CL -  USA Stock  

USD 83.45  0.91  1.10%

Colgate Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Colgate Palmolive historical stock prices and determine the direction of Colgate-Palmolive's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Colgate Palmolive historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Colgate Palmolive naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Colgate-Palmolive systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Colgate Palmolive fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Colgate Palmolive to cross-verify your projections.

Colgate Stock Forecast 

 
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Colgate Palmolive Cash and Equivalents Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Cash and Equivalents Turnover is estimated at 21.73. Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 1.02 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 10.25. . Colgate Palmolive Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 784.76 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 1.1 B this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (747 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-01-21 Colgate Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Colgate Palmolive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Colgate Palmolive's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Colgate Palmolive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Colgate Palmolive's open interest, investors have to compare it to Colgate Palmolive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Colgate Palmolive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Colgate. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Colgate Palmolive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Colgate Palmolive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Colgate Palmolive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Colgate Palmolive is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Colgate-Palmolive value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Colgate Palmolive Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of January 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Colgate-Palmolive on the next trading day is expected to be 83.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.75, mean absolute percentage error of 5.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 907.59. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Colgate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Colgate Palmolive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Colgate Palmolive Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Colgate PalmoliveColgate Palmolive Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Colgate Palmolive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Colgate Palmolive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Colgate Palmolive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.36 and 85.49, respectively. We have considered Colgate Palmolive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
83.45
16th of January 2022
83.93
Expected Value
85.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Colgate Palmolive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Colgate Palmolive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria959.7135
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7521
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0235
SAESum of the absolute errors907.5947
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Colgate-Palmolive. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Colgate Palmolive. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Colgate Palmolive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Colgate-Palmolive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Colgate Palmolive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Colgate Palmolive in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
82.2983.2684.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
75.1189.6590.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
83.4583.4583.45
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
77.0086.9095.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Colgate Palmolive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Colgate Palmolive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Colgate Palmolive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Colgate-Palmolive.

Other Forecasting Options for Colgate Palmolive

For every potential investor in Colgate, whether a beginner or expert, Colgate Palmolive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Colgate Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Colgate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Colgate Palmolive's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Colgate Palmolive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Colgate Palmolive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Colgate Palmolive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Colgate-Palmolive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Colgate Palmolive's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Colgate Palmolive's current price.

Colgate Palmolive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Colgate Palmolive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Colgate Palmolive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Colgate Palmolive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Colgate-Palmolive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Colgate Palmolive Risk Indicators

The analysis of Colgate Palmolive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Colgate Palmolive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Colgate Palmolive stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Colgate Palmolive Investors Sentiment

The influence of Colgate Palmolive's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Colgate. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Colgate Palmolive Implied Volatility

    
  48.06  
Colgate Palmolive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Colgate-Palmolive stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Colgate Palmolive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Colgate Palmolive stock will not fluctuate a lot when Colgate Palmolive's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Colgate Palmolive in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Colgate Palmolive's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Colgate Palmolive options trading.

Current Sentiment - CL

Colgate-Palmolive Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Colgate-Palmolive. What is your opinion about investing in Colgate-Palmolive? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Colgate Palmolive

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Colgate Palmolive position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Colgate Palmolive will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Colgate Palmolive Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Colgate Palmolive and Acme United Corp. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Colgate Palmolive to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Colgate-Palmolive information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Colgate Palmolive's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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Is Colgate Palmolive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Colgate Palmolive. If investors know Colgate will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Colgate Palmolive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Colgate-Palmolive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Colgate that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Colgate Palmolive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Colgate Palmolive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Colgate Palmolive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Colgate Palmolive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Colgate Palmolive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Colgate Palmolive value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Colgate Palmolive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.