Colgate Palmolive Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

CL Stock  USD 90.05  0.10  0.11%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Colgate Palmolive on the next trading day is expected to be 89.24 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.95  and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.31. Colgate Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Colgate Palmolive stock prices and determine the direction of Colgate Palmolive's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Colgate Palmolive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Colgate Palmolive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Colgate Palmolive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Colgate Palmolive fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Colgate Palmolive to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Colgate Stock please use our How to buy in Colgate Stock guide.
  
At this time, Colgate Palmolive's Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 6.09 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 7.45. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 849.8 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 2.1 B this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Colgate Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Colgate Palmolive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Colgate Palmolive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Colgate Palmolive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Colgate Palmolive's open interest, investors have to compare it to Colgate Palmolive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Colgate Palmolive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Colgate. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Colgate Palmolive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Colgate Palmolive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Colgate Palmolive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Colgate Palmolive is based on an artificially constructed time series of Colgate Palmolive daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Colgate Palmolive 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Colgate Palmolive on the next trading day is expected to be 89.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Colgate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Colgate Palmolive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Colgate Palmolive Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Colgate PalmoliveColgate Palmolive Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Colgate Palmolive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Colgate Palmolive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Colgate Palmolive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 88.50 and 89.98, respectively. We have considered Colgate Palmolive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
90.05
89.24
Expected Value
89.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Colgate Palmolive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Colgate Palmolive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.7242
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.7952
MADMean absolute deviation0.9502
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0111
SAESum of the absolute errors51.3088
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Colgate Palmolive 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Colgate Palmolive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Colgate-Palmolive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Colgate Palmolive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
89.3090.0590.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
81.05103.12103.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
85.8288.0590.28
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
74.0381.3590.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Colgate Palmolive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Colgate Palmolive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Colgate Palmolive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Colgate-Palmolive.

Other Forecasting Options for Colgate Palmolive

For every potential investor in Colgate, whether a beginner or expert, Colgate Palmolive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Colgate Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Colgate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Colgate Palmolive's price trends.

Colgate Palmolive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Colgate Palmolive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Colgate Palmolive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Colgate Palmolive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Colgate-Palmolive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Colgate Palmolive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Colgate Palmolive's current price.

Colgate Palmolive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Colgate Palmolive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Colgate Palmolive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Colgate Palmolive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Colgate Palmolive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Colgate Palmolive Risk Indicators

The analysis of Colgate Palmolive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Colgate Palmolive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting colgate stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Colgate Palmolive

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Colgate Palmolive position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Colgate Palmolive will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Colgate Stock

  0.94PG Procter Gamble Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.66UL Unilever PLC ADRPairCorr

Moving against Colgate Stock

  0.93YSG Yatsen Holding Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.85NUS Nu Skin Enterprises Financial Report 1st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.78NAII Natural AlternativesPairCorr
  0.64NWL Newell Brands Financial Report 26th of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.64TANH Tantech Holdings Report 6th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Colgate Palmolive could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Colgate Palmolive when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Colgate Palmolive - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Colgate Palmolive to buy it.
The correlation of Colgate Palmolive is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Colgate Palmolive moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Colgate-Palmolive moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Colgate Palmolive can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Colgate-Palmolive is a strong investment it is important to analyze Colgate Palmolive's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Colgate Palmolive's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Colgate Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Colgate Palmolive to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Colgate Stock please use our How to buy in Colgate Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.

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Is Colgate Palmolive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Colgate Palmolive. If investors know Colgate will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Colgate Palmolive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
144.537
Dividend Share
1.91
Earnings Share
2.77
Revenue Per Share
23.516
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.069
The market value of Colgate-Palmolive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Colgate that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Colgate Palmolive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Colgate Palmolive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Colgate Palmolive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Colgate Palmolive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Colgate Palmolive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Colgate Palmolive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Colgate Palmolive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.