Cleveland Cliffs Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CLF Stock | USD 18.55 2.30 11.03% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cleveland Cliffs on the next trading day is expected to be 18.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.90. Cleveland Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cleveland Cliffs stock prices and determine the direction of Cleveland Cliffs's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cleveland Cliffs' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Cleveland Cliffs' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cleveland Cliffs' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cleveland Cliffs fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cleveland Cliffs to cross-verify your projections. Cleveland |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Cleveland Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cleveland Cliffs' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cleveland Cliffs' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cleveland Cliffs stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cleveland Cliffs' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cleveland Cliffs' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cleveland Cliffs is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cleveland. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Cleveland Cliffs cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cleveland Cliffs' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cleveland Cliffs' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Cleveland Cliffs works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Cleveland Cliffs Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cleveland Cliffs on the next trading day is expected to be 18.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cleveland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cleveland Cliffs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cleveland Cliffs Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cleveland Cliffs | Cleveland Cliffs Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cleveland Cliffs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cleveland Cliffs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cleveland Cliffs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.06 and 20.85, respectively. We have considered Cleveland Cliffs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cleveland Cliffs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cleveland Cliffs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0975 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3881 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.8983 |
Predictive Modules for Cleveland Cliffs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cleveland Cliffs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cleveland Cliffs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Cleveland Cliffs
For every potential investor in Cleveland, whether a beginner or expert, Cleveland Cliffs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cleveland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cleveland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cleveland Cliffs' price trends.Cleveland Cliffs Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cleveland Cliffs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cleveland Cliffs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cleveland Cliffs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cleveland Cliffs Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cleveland Cliffs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cleveland Cliffs' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cleveland Cliffs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cleveland Cliffs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cleveland Cliffs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cleveland Cliffs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cleveland Cliffs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2.6 M | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.89 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.83) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.30) |
Cleveland Cliffs Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cleveland Cliffs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cleveland Cliffs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cleveland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Cleveland Cliffs Investors Sentiment
The influence of Cleveland Cliffs' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Cleveland. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Cleveland Cliffs' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cleveland. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cleveland can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cleveland Cliffs. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Cleveland Cliffs' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Cleveland Cliffs' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Cleveland Cliffs' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Cleveland Cliffs.
Cleveland Cliffs Implied Volatility | 102.57 |
Cleveland Cliffs' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cleveland Cliffs stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cleveland Cliffs' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cleveland Cliffs stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cleveland Cliffs' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cleveland Cliffs in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cleveland Cliffs' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cleveland Cliffs options trading.
Pair Trading with Cleveland Cliffs
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cleveland Cliffs position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cleveland Cliffs will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Cleveland Stock
| 0.69 | AA | Alcoa Corp Financial Report 17th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | TX | Ternium SA ADR | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | WS | Worthington Steel | PairCorr |
Moving against Cleveland Stock
| 0.68 | SID | Companhia Siderurgica Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | ZKIN | ZK International | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | X | United States Steel Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cleveland Cliffs could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cleveland Cliffs when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cleveland Cliffs - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cleveland Cliffs to buy it.
The correlation of Cleveland Cliffs is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cleveland Cliffs moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cleveland Cliffs moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cleveland Cliffs can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cleveland Cliffs to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Cleveland Stock please use our How to Invest in Cleveland Cliffs guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Cleveland Stock analysis
When running Cleveland Cliffs' price analysis, check to measure Cleveland Cliffs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cleveland Cliffs is operating at the current time. Most of Cleveland Cliffs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cleveland Cliffs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cleveland Cliffs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cleveland Cliffs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences |
Is Cleveland Cliffs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cleveland Cliffs. If investors know Cleveland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cleveland Cliffs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.792 | Earnings Share 0.78 | Revenue Per Share 43.129 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.013 | Return On Assets 0.0329 |
The market value of Cleveland Cliffs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cleveland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cleveland Cliffs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cleveland Cliffs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cleveland Cliffs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cleveland Cliffs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cleveland Cliffs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cleveland Cliffs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cleveland Cliffs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.