Celestica Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CLS Stock | USD 42.98 2.25 5.52% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Celestica on the next trading day is expected to be 40.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.80. Celestica Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Celestica stock prices and determine the direction of Celestica's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Celestica's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Celestica's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Celestica's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Celestica fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celestica to cross-verify your projections. Celestica |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Celestica Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Celestica's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Celestica's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Celestica stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Celestica's open interest, investors have to compare it to Celestica's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Celestica is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Celestica. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Celestica cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Celestica's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Celestica's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Celestica is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Celestica value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Celestica Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Celestica on the next trading day is expected to be 40.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 2.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Celestica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Celestica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Celestica Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Celestica | Celestica Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Celestica Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Celestica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Celestica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.09 and 43.83, respectively. We have considered Celestica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Celestica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Celestica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9181 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1443 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 69.7996 |
Predictive Modules for Celestica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Celestica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Celestica's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Celestica
For every potential investor in Celestica, whether a beginner or expert, Celestica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Celestica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Celestica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Celestica's price trends.Celestica Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Celestica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Celestica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Celestica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Celestica Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Celestica's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Celestica's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Celestica Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Celestica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Celestica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Celestica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Celestica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Celestica Risk Indicators
The analysis of Celestica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Celestica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting celestica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.44 | |||
| Variance | 11.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Celestica Investors Sentiment
The influence of Celestica's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Celestica. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Celestica's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Celestica. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Celestica can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Celestica. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Celestica's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Celestica's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Celestica's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Celestica.
Celestica Implied Volatility | 82.11 |
Celestica's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Celestica stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Celestica's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Celestica stock will not fluctuate a lot when Celestica's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Celestica in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Celestica's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Celestica options trading.
Pair Trading with Celestica
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Celestica position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Celestica will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Celestica Stock
| 0.74 | BHE | Benchmark Electronics Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | CTS | CTS Corporation Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Celestica Stock
| 0.9 | AAPL | Apple Inc Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | ZS | Zscaler Financial Report 6th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | MEI | Methode Electronics Financial Report 27th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | CSCO | Cisco Systems Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | BELFB | Bel Fuse B Financial Report 24th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Celestica could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Celestica when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Celestica - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Celestica to buy it.
The correlation of Celestica is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Celestica moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Celestica moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Celestica can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celestica to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Celestica Stock please use our How to Invest in Celestica guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Complementary Tools for Celestica Stock analysis
When running Celestica's price analysis, check to measure Celestica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Celestica is operating at the current time. Most of Celestica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Celestica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Celestica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Celestica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Celestica's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Celestica. If investors know Celestica will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Celestica listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.026 | Earnings Share 2.03 | Revenue Per Share 66.286 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 | Return On Assets 0.0405 |
The market value of Celestica is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Celestica that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Celestica's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Celestica's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Celestica's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Celestica's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Celestica's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Celestica is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Celestica's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.