Comcast Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CMCSA
 Stock
  

USD 31.84  0.63  1.94%   

Comcast Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Comcast Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Comcast Corp A's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Comcast Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comcast Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-09-30 Comcast Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Comcast Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Comcast Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Comcast Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Comcast Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Comcast Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Comcast Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Comcast. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Comcast Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Comcast Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Comcast Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Comcast Corp works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Comcast Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Comcast Corp A on the next trading day is expected to be 31.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Comcast Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Comcast Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Comcast Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Comcast Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Comcast Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Comcast Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.32 and 33.68, respectively. We have considered Comcast Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 31.84
31.50
Expected Value
33.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Comcast Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Comcast Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1696
MADMean absolute deviation0.691
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0184
SAESum of the absolute errors40.7671
When Comcast Corp A prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Comcast Corp A trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Comcast Corp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Comcast Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Comcast Corp A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comcast Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Comcast Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.7331.9134.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.6637.4339.61
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0062.1775.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Comcast Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Comcast Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Comcast Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Comcast Corp A.

Other Forecasting Options for Comcast Corp

For every potential investor in Comcast, whether a beginner or expert, Comcast Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Comcast Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Comcast. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Comcast Corp's price trends.

Comcast Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Comcast Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Comcast Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Comcast Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
BUSHVELD MINERALS LTDAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Comcast Corp A Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Comcast Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Comcast Corp's current price.

Comcast Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Comcast Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Comcast Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Comcast Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Comcast Corp A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Comcast Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Comcast Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Comcast Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Comcast Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Comcast Corp Implied Volatility

    
  35.76  
Comcast Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Comcast Corp A stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Comcast Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Comcast Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Comcast Corp's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Comcast Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Comcast Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Comcast Corp options trading.

Pair Trading with Comcast Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Comcast Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Comcast Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Comcast Corp

+0.69PGProcter Gamble TrendingPairCorr
+0.64JNJJohnson Johnson TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Comcast Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Comcast Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Comcast Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Comcast Corp A to buy it.
The correlation of Comcast Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Comcast Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Comcast Corp A moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Comcast Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comcast Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running Comcast Corp A price analysis, check to measure Comcast Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Comcast Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Comcast Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Comcast Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Comcast Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Comcast Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Comcast Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comcast Corp. If investors know Comcast will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comcast Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Comcast Corp A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comcast that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comcast Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comcast Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comcast Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comcast Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comcast Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Comcast Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comcast Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.