Comcast Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CMCSA
 Stock
  

USD 40.00  0.60  1.52%   

Comcast Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Comcast Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Comcast Corp A's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Comcast Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Comcast Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Comcast Corp A systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Comcast Corp fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comcast Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
Comcast Corp Receivables Turnover is projected to drop based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 9.92. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 11.79, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 2.08. . The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 5.4 B, whereas Weighted Average Shares is forecasted to decline to about 4.5 B.
Most investors in Comcast Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Comcast Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Comcast Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Comcast Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Comcast Corp A value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Comcast Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Comcast Corp A on the next trading day is expected to be 41.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Comcast Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Comcast Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Comcast Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Comcast CorpComcast Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Comcast Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Comcast Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Comcast Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.73 and 43.68, respectively. We have considered Comcast Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 40.00
41.70
Expected Value
43.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Comcast Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Comcast Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.8458
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6978
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0172
SAESum of the absolute errors43.2646
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Comcast Corp A. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Comcast Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Comcast Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Comcast Corp A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comcast Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Comcast Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38.0540.0342.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.0051.2753.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
36.8439.8742.90
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0062.1775.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Comcast Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Comcast Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Comcast Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Comcast Corp A.

Other Forecasting Options for Comcast Corp

For every potential investor in Comcast, whether a beginner or expert, Comcast Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Comcast Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Comcast. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Comcast Corp's price trends.

Comcast Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Comcast Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Comcast Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Comcast Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
AMC EntertainmentATT IncExxon Mobil CorpGeneral ElectricPfizer IncMcDonalds CorpMerck CompanyCisco SystemsDupont DenemoursVerizon CommunicationsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Comcast Corp A Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Comcast Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Comcast Corp's current price.

Comcast Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Comcast Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Comcast Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Comcast Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Comcast Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Comcast Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Comcast. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Comcast Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Comcast. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Comcast can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Comcast Corp A. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Comcast Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Comcast Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Comcast Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Comcast Corp.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Comcast Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Comcast Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Comcast Corp options trading.

Pair Trading with Comcast Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Comcast Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Comcast Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Comcast Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Comcast Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Comcast Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Comcast Corp A to buy it.
The correlation of Comcast Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Comcast Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Comcast Corp A moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Comcast Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comcast Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Comcast Corp A information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Comcast Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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When running Comcast Corp A price analysis, check to measure Comcast Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Comcast Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Comcast Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Comcast Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Comcast Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Comcast Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Comcast Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comcast Corp. If investors know Comcast will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comcast Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.05
Market Capitalization
176.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.051
Return On Assets
0.051
Return On Equity
0.14
The market value of Comcast Corp A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comcast that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comcast Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comcast Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comcast Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comcast Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comcast Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Comcast Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comcast Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.