Cumulus Media Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CMLS Stock  USD 3.23  0.10  3.19%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cumulus Media Class on the next trading day is expected to be 3.03 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.13  and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.30. Cumulus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cumulus Media stock prices and determine the direction of Cumulus Media Class's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cumulus Media's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Cumulus Media's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cumulus Media's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cumulus Media fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cumulus Media to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Cumulus Media's Fixed Asset Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 5.48 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.99 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 19.6 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 15.9 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Cumulus Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cumulus Media's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cumulus Media's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cumulus Media stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cumulus Media's open interest, investors have to compare it to Cumulus Media's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cumulus Media is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cumulus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Cumulus Media cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cumulus Media's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cumulus Media's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Cumulus Media is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Cumulus Media Class value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Cumulus Media Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cumulus Media Class on the next trading day is expected to be 3.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cumulus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cumulus Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cumulus Media Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cumulus MediaCumulus Media Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cumulus Media Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cumulus Media's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cumulus Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.65, respectively. We have considered Cumulus Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.23
3.03
Expected Value
7.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cumulus Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cumulus Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6844
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1339
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0323
SAESum of the absolute errors8.3005
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Cumulus Media Class. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Cumulus Media. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Cumulus Media

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cumulus Media Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cumulus Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.153.037.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.234.539.15
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.898.679.62
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cumulus Media. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cumulus Media's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cumulus Media's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cumulus Media Class.

Other Forecasting Options for Cumulus Media

For every potential investor in Cumulus, whether a beginner or expert, Cumulus Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cumulus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cumulus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cumulus Media's price trends.

Cumulus Media Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cumulus Media stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cumulus Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cumulus Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cumulus Media Class Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cumulus Media's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cumulus Media's current price.

Cumulus Media Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cumulus Media stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cumulus Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cumulus Media stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cumulus Media Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cumulus Media Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cumulus Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cumulus Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cumulus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cumulus Media in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cumulus Media's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cumulus Media options trading.

Pair Trading with Cumulus Media

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cumulus Media position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cumulus Media will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Cumulus Stock

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Moving against Cumulus Stock

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  0.91KUKE Kuke Music Holding Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cumulus Media could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cumulus Media when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cumulus Media - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cumulus Media Class to buy it.
The correlation of Cumulus Media is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cumulus Media moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cumulus Media Class moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cumulus Media can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Cumulus Media Class is a strong investment it is important to analyze Cumulus Media's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Cumulus Media's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Cumulus Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cumulus Media to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

Complementary Tools for Cumulus Stock analysis

When running Cumulus Media's price analysis, check to measure Cumulus Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cumulus Media is operating at the current time. Most of Cumulus Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cumulus Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cumulus Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cumulus Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cumulus Media's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cumulus Media. If investors know Cumulus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cumulus Media listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.64)
Earnings Share
(6.83)
Revenue Per Share
48.905
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
Return On Assets
0.0097
The market value of Cumulus Media Class is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cumulus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cumulus Media's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cumulus Media's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cumulus Media's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cumulus Media's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cumulus Media's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cumulus Media is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cumulus Media's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.