Comtech Telecommunicatio Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CMTL Stock  USD 3.51  0.38  12.14%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Comtech Telecommunications Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.36 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.25  and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.19. Comtech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Comtech Telecommunicatio stock prices and determine the direction of Comtech Telecommunications Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Comtech Telecommunicatio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Comtech Telecommunicatio's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Comtech Telecommunicatio's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Comtech Telecommunicatio fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comtech Telecommunicatio to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Comtech Telecommunicatio's Payables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 10.02 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 2.98. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 20.6 M. Net Loss is expected to rise to about (29 M) this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Comtech Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Comtech Telecommunicatio's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Comtech Telecommunicatio's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Comtech Telecommunicatio stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Comtech Telecommunicatio's open interest, investors have to compare it to Comtech Telecommunicatio's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Comtech Telecommunicatio is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Comtech. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Comtech Telecommunicatio cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Comtech Telecommunicatio's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Comtech Telecommunicatio's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Comtech Telecommunicatio works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Comtech Telecommunications Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Comtech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Comtech Telecommunicatio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Comtech Telecommunicatio Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Comtech TelecommunicatioComtech Telecommunicatio Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Comtech Telecommunicatio Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Comtech Telecommunicatio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Comtech Telecommunicatio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 9.73, respectively. We have considered Comtech Telecommunicatio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.51
3.36
Expected Value
9.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Comtech Telecommunicatio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Comtech Telecommunicatio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0414
MADMean absolute deviation0.2532
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0456
SAESum of the absolute errors15.1923
When Comtech Telecommunications Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Comtech Telecommunications Corp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Comtech Telecommunicatio observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Comtech Telecommunicatio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Comtech Telecommunicatio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comtech Telecommunicatio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.142.839.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.226.5312.84
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.3315.7517.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Comtech Telecommunicatio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Comtech Telecommunicatio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Comtech Telecommunicatio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Comtech Telecommunicatio.

Other Forecasting Options for Comtech Telecommunicatio

For every potential investor in Comtech, whether a beginner or expert, Comtech Telecommunicatio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Comtech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Comtech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Comtech Telecommunicatio's price trends.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Comtech Telecommunicatio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Comtech Telecommunicatio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Comtech Telecommunicatio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Comtech Telecommunicatio Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Comtech Telecommunicatio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Comtech Telecommunicatio's current price.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Comtech Telecommunicatio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Comtech Telecommunicatio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Comtech Telecommunicatio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Comtech Telecommunications Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Comtech Telecommunicatio Risk Indicators

The analysis of Comtech Telecommunicatio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Comtech Telecommunicatio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting comtech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Comtech Telecommunicatio

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Comtech Telecommunicatio position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Comtech Telecommunicatio will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Comtech Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Comtech Telecommunicatio could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Comtech Telecommunicatio when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Comtech Telecommunicatio - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Comtech Telecommunications Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Comtech Telecommunicatio is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Comtech Telecommunicatio moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Comtech Telecommunicatio moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Comtech Telecommunicatio can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Comtech Telecommunicatio is a strong investment it is important to analyze Comtech Telecommunicatio's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Comtech Telecommunicatio's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Comtech Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comtech Telecommunicatio to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.

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When running Comtech Telecommunicatio's price analysis, check to measure Comtech Telecommunicatio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Comtech Telecommunicatio is operating at the current time. Most of Comtech Telecommunicatio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Comtech Telecommunicatio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Comtech Telecommunicatio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Comtech Telecommunicatio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Comtech Telecommunicatio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comtech Telecommunicatio. If investors know Comtech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comtech Telecommunicatio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
5.87
Earnings Share
(1.70)
Revenue Per Share
20.109
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.004
Return On Assets
0.0083
The market value of Comtech Telecommunicatio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comtech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comtech Telecommunicatio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comtech Telecommunicatio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comtech Telecommunicatio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comtech Telecommunicatio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comtech Telecommunicatio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Comtech Telecommunicatio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comtech Telecommunicatio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.