CNA Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CNA Stock  USD 45.42  0.57  1.27%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CNA Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 45.46 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.45  and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.07. CNA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CNA Financial stock prices and determine the direction of CNA Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CNA Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CNA Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CNA Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CNA Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNA Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade CNA Stock refer to our How to Trade CNA Stock guide.
  
The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.25, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is forecasted to decline to 39.89. . As of March 29, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 265.8 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to decline to about 803 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 CNA Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CNA Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CNA Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CNA Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CNA Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to CNA Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CNA Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CNA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CNA Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CNA Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CNA Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for CNA Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CNA Financial value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CNA Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CNA Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 45.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CNA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CNA Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CNA Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CNA FinancialCNA Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CNA Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CNA Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CNA Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.00 and 46.92, respectively. We have considered CNA Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
45.42
45.46
Expected Value
46.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CNA Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CNA Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9512
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4528
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors28.0746
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CNA Financial. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CNA Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CNA Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNA Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CNA Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
43.9945.4446.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.5040.9549.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
43.2244.1345.04
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
38.2242.0046.62
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CNA Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CNA Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CNA Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CNA Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for CNA Financial

For every potential investor in CNA, whether a beginner or expert, CNA Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CNA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CNA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CNA Financial's price trends.

CNA Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CNA Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CNA Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CNA Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CNA Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CNA Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CNA Financial's current price.

CNA Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CNA Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CNA Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CNA Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CNA Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CNA Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of CNA Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CNA Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with CNA Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CNA Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CNA Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with CNA Stock

  0.62L Loews CorpPairCorr
  0.76CB Chubb Financial Report 23rd of April 2024 PairCorr

Moving against CNA Stock

  0.5FACO First Acceptance CorpPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CNA Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CNA Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CNA Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CNA Financial to buy it.
The correlation of CNA Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CNA Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CNA Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CNA Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether CNA Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CNA Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cna Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cna Financial Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNA Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade CNA Stock refer to our How to Trade CNA Stock guide.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for CNA Stock analysis

When running CNA Financial's price analysis, check to measure CNA Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CNA Financial is operating at the current time. Most of CNA Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CNA Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CNA Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CNA Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Analyst Advice
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Is CNA Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CNA Financial. If investors know CNA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CNA Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.532
Dividend Share
1.68
Earnings Share
4.43
Revenue Per Share
49.02
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.127
The market value of CNA Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CNA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CNA Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CNA Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CNA Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CNA Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CNA Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CNA Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CNA Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.