Connect Biopharma Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CNTB Stock | USD 1.67 0.05 2.91% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Connect Biopharma Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 2.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.70. Connect Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Connect Biopharma stock prices and determine the direction of Connect Biopharma Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Connect Biopharma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Connect Biopharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Connect Biopharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Connect Biopharma fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Connect Biopharma to cross-verify your projections. Connect |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Connect Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Connect Biopharma's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Connect Biopharma's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Connect Biopharma stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open InterestPlease note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Connect Biopharma's open interest, investors have to compare it to Connect Biopharma's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Connect Biopharma is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Connect. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Connect Biopharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Connect Biopharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Connect Biopharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Connect Biopharma polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Connect Biopharma Holdings as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Connect Biopharma Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Connect Biopharma Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 2.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Connect Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Connect Biopharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Connect Biopharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Connect Biopharma | Connect Biopharma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Connect Biopharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Connect Biopharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Connect Biopharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 11.02, respectively. We have considered Connect Biopharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Connect Biopharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Connect Biopharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6053 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1262 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0879 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.7007 |
Predictive Modules for Connect Biopharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Connect Biopharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Connect Biopharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Connect Biopharma
For every potential investor in Connect, whether a beginner or expert, Connect Biopharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Connect Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Connect. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Connect Biopharma's price trends.Connect Biopharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Connect Biopharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Connect Biopharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Connect Biopharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Connect Biopharma Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Connect Biopharma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Connect Biopharma's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Connect Biopharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Connect Biopharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Connect Biopharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Connect Biopharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Connect Biopharma Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Connect Biopharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Connect Biopharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Connect Biopharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting connect stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.88 | |||
| Variance | 78.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 48.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 41.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Connect Biopharma in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Connect Biopharma's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Connect Biopharma options trading.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Connect Biopharma to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Connect Stock analysis
When running Connect Biopharma's price analysis, check to measure Connect Biopharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Connect Biopharma is operating at the current time. Most of Connect Biopharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Connect Biopharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Connect Biopharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Connect Biopharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges |
Is Connect Biopharma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Connect Biopharma. If investors know Connect will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Connect Biopharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.53) | Return On Assets (0.29) | Return On Equity (0.52) |
The market value of Connect Biopharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Connect that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Connect Biopharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Connect Biopharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Connect Biopharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Connect Biopharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Connect Biopharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Connect Biopharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Connect Biopharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.