Costco Wholesale Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

COST Stock  USD 732.08  1.10  0.15%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Costco Wholesale Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 760.93 with a mean absolute deviation of  13.25  and the sum of the absolute errors of 821.75. Costco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Costco Wholesale stock prices and determine the direction of Costco Wholesale Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Costco Wholesale's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Costco Wholesale's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Costco Wholesale's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Costco Wholesale fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Costco Wholesale to cross-verify your projections.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 14.34 in 2024. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 13.93 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 442.2 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 4.8 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Costco Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Costco Wholesale's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Costco Wholesale's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Costco Wholesale stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Costco Wholesale's open interest, investors have to compare it to Costco Wholesale's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Costco Wholesale is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Costco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Costco Wholesale cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Costco Wholesale's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Costco Wholesale's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Costco Wholesale price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Costco Wholesale Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Costco Wholesale Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 760.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.25, mean absolute percentage error of 266.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 821.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Costco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Costco Wholesale's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Costco Wholesale Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Costco WholesaleCostco Wholesale Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Costco Wholesale Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Costco Wholesale's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Costco Wholesale's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 759.58 and 762.28, respectively. We have considered Costco Wholesale's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
732.08
759.58
Downside
760.93
Expected Value
762.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Costco Wholesale stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Costco Wholesale stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.5344
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation13.254
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0184
SAESum of the absolute errors821.7493
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Costco Wholesale Corp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Costco Wholesale

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Costco Wholesale Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Costco Wholesale's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
730.58731.92733.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
589.12590.46805.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
730.29731.34732.39
Details
36 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
541.68595.25660.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Costco Wholesale. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Costco Wholesale's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Costco Wholesale's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Costco Wholesale Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Costco Wholesale

For every potential investor in Costco, whether a beginner or expert, Costco Wholesale's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Costco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Costco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Costco Wholesale's price trends.

Costco Wholesale Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Costco Wholesale stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Costco Wholesale could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Costco Wholesale by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Costco Wholesale Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Costco Wholesale's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Costco Wholesale's current price.

Costco Wholesale Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Costco Wholesale stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Costco Wholesale shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Costco Wholesale stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Costco Wholesale Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Costco Wholesale Risk Indicators

The analysis of Costco Wholesale's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Costco Wholesale's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting costco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Costco Wholesale Investors Sentiment

The influence of Costco Wholesale's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Costco. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Costco Wholesale's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Costco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Costco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Costco Wholesale Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Costco Wholesale's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Costco Wholesale's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Costco Wholesale's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Costco Wholesale.

Costco Wholesale Implied Volatility

    
  22.45  
Costco Wholesale's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Costco Wholesale Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Costco Wholesale's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Costco Wholesale stock will not fluctuate a lot when Costco Wholesale's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Costco Wholesale in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Costco Wholesale's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Costco Wholesale options trading.

Pair Trading with Costco Wholesale

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Costco Wholesale position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Costco Wholesale will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Costco Stock

  0.72BJ BJs Wholesale Club Financial Report 28th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.71DG Dollar General Financial Report 6th of June 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Costco Stock

  0.91ACI Albertsons Companies Report 9th of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.87HFFG Hf Foods GroupPairCorr
  0.86IH IhumanInc Report 29th of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.66WBUY WEBUY GLOBAL LTDPairCorr
  0.66LW Lamb Weston Holdings Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Costco Wholesale could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Costco Wholesale when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Costco Wholesale - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Costco Wholesale Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Costco Wholesale is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Costco Wholesale moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Costco Wholesale Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Costco Wholesale can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Costco Wholesale Corp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Costco Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Costco Wholesale Corp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Costco Wholesale Corp Stock:

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Is Costco Wholesale's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Costco Wholesale. If investors know Costco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Costco Wholesale listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.188
Dividend Share
4.08
Earnings Share
15.28
Revenue Per Share
560.607
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.057
The market value of Costco Wholesale Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Costco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Costco Wholesale's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Costco Wholesale's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Costco Wholesale's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Costco Wholesale's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Costco Wholesale's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Costco Wholesale is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Costco Wholesale's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.