# CROBEX Index Forecast - Polynomial Regression

CRBEX Index | 2,259 4.42 0.20% |

Most investors in CROBEX cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CROBEX's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CROBEX's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

CROBEX polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for CROBEX as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. ## CROBEX Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CROBEX on the next trading day is expected to be 2,253 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.83, mean absolute percentage error of 172.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 660.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CROBEX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CROBEX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## CROBEX Index Forecast Pattern

## CROBEX Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CROBEX's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CROBEX's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,253 and 2,254, respectively. We have considered CROBEX's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CROBEX index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CROBEX index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.2592 |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.8263 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0048 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 660.4057 |

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## Predictive Modules for CROBEX

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CROBEX. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CROBEX's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CROBEX in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CROBEX. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CROBEX's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CROBEX's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CROBEX.

## Other Forecasting Options for CROBEX

For every potential investor in CROBEX, whether a beginner or expert, CROBEX's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CROBEX Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CROBEX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CROBEX's price trends.## CROBEX Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CROBEX index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CROBEX could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CROBEX by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## CROBEX Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CROBEX's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CROBEX's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## CROBEX Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CROBEX index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CROBEX shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CROBEX index market strength indicators, traders can identify CROBEX entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Accumulation Distribution | 0.0028 | |||

Daily Balance Of Power | (0.70) | |||

Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||

Day Median Price | 2261.31 | |||

Day Typical Price | 2260.59 | |||

Market Facilitation Index | 6.31 | |||

Price Action Indicator | (4.36) |

## CROBEX Risk Indicators

The analysis of CROBEX's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CROBEX's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting CROBEX stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 0.3267 | |||

Semi Deviation | 0.4767 | |||

Standard Deviation | 0.4494 | |||

Variance | 0.202 | |||

Downside Variance | 0.2814 | |||

Semi Variance | 0.2272 | |||

Expected Short fall | (0.32) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CROBEX in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CROBEX's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CROBEX options trading.

## Pair Trading with CROBEX

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CROBEX position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CROBEX will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to CROBEX could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CROBEX when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CROBEX - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CROBEX to buy it.

The correlation of CROBEX is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CROBEX moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CROBEX moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CROBEX can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in commodities. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

## Complementary Tools for CROBEX Index analysis

When running CROBEX's price analysis, check to measure CROBEX's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CROBEX is operating at the current time. Most of CROBEX's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CROBEX's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CROBEX's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CROBEX to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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